Bitcoin is poised to outshine gold for the remainder of 2025, according to a new forecast by analysts at JP Morgan.
Led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the analysts highlight a shift in investor sentiment where the traditional "debasement trade" involving gold is increasingly being supplanted by Bitcoin.
"Between mid-February and mid-April gold was rising at the expense of bitcoin, while of the past three weeks we have been observing the opposite," the analysts noted. They emphasized that this "zero-sum game" dynamic between the two assets is likely to persist, but that crypto-specific catalysts are expected to tilt the balance in favor of Bitcoin.
Recent market movements support this thesis: since April 22, the gold price has declined nearly 8%, while Bitcoin has surged 18%. These shifts are reflected in investor behavior, with funds flowing out of gold ETFs and into Bitcoin investment vehicles. Futures positioning data also shows a marked decline in gold exposure and rising interest in Bitcoin.
JP Morgan attributes this divergence to a combination of rising corporate treasury allocations to Bitcoin and favorable regulatory developments in the U.S., including state-level legislation enabling direct investment in the asset. Corporate moves by firms such as Strategy, which plans to raise $84 billion for Bitcoin investments by 2027 and has already achieved 32% of that goal, further bolster this trend.