3 billion USD in cryptocurrency options expired on May 16, but the trend for the following week is somewhat positive.
In June, options traders expect BTC to rise to 110K-125K USD with a floor price of 95K USD.
On May 16, at 8:00 UTC, 3 billion USD in cryptocurrency options expired. Bitcoin [BTC] accounted for 2.6 billion USD, while Ethereum [ETH] had 252 million USD.
According to data from Deribit, BTC has a 'max pain' level at 100K USD and ETH at 2,200 USD. 'Max pain' is the level at which most options will expire worthless and sometimes acts like a price magnet.
Regarding the position, Deribit stated:
“BTC leans neutral, while ETH has slightly more put options than call options. The price trend could become interesting.”
Source: Deribit
This position is reflected in the Put/Call ratio. A value above 1 indicates more put options than calls (bearish bets), while a value below 1 leans towards bullish.
Simply put, ETH has more bearish bets before expiration on Friday, while BTC is neutral at 1.
Market reaction after the options expiration on Friday
At the time of writing, about 2 hours after expiration on May 15, BTC was priced at 103.8K USD, up 2% from the lowest of 101K USD on Thursday.
For ETH, it is trading at 2.6K USD, up 6% from the lowest of 2.4K USD on Thursday.
This indicates that ETH is more volatile compared to BTC, and the expiration of 3 billion USD is not causing a major pullback as initially feared.
Looking ahead, Amberdata's 25RR index (25-delta risk reversal) is positive for expirations next Friday (May 23) and the end of May (May 30).
The positive reading of this index indicates that call options outnumber put options (bullish bets over bearish), reflecting a positive market sentiment for the latter part of May.
Source: Amberdata (Tracker Volatility, as of May 16, 11 UTC)
However, there is no significant momentum from macro or the cryptocurrency market to push BTC higher after the US-China trade deal lifted it above 100K USD last week.
Whether expectations about Fed interest rates will push BTC further remains to be seen. However, the most popular call options in the past 24 hours are targeting 110K-120K USD for the end of June expiration.
For the expiration on May 23, the 107K USD call option is also favored. However, the 95K USD put option for June seems to be the likely floor price heading into early summer.
Source: Deribit
Overall, the position shows that options traders expect BTC to reach an all-time high by the end of May or June with a targeted downside risk of 95K USD.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler also highlighted a similar prediction, stating that BTC is currently undervalued based on the STH MVRV (Short-term holder) index.
He pointed out that if there is no negative momentum in the market, pressure on BTC could increase to 118K USD in June.
“The current STH MVRV index is 1.09. The first significant sell-off is expected around 1.25 (price target ≈ 118K USD), with stronger pressure possibly at 1.35 (≈ 128K USD)”
Source: Axel Adler/X
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/hop-dong-tien-dien-tu-3-ty-usd-dao-han-thi-truong-bien-dong/
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