Market reduces projections for public debt in 2025 and 2026, shows Prisma

The May Prisma Fiscal report, released by the Ministry of Finance, showed that economists slightly lowered the projections for Brazil's gross public debt in 2025 and 2026. It is now expected that the debt will reach 80.30% of GDP in 2025 (down from 80.50%) and 84.49% in 2026 (down from 84.55%).

Despite this modest improvement in debt, expectations for the primary result remain negative and far from government targets. The forecast for 2025 indicates a deficit of R$5,392,679,390,472.6 billion, and for 2026, a deficit of R$5,392,679,390,480.6 billion — far from the zero deficit target in 2025 and a surplus of 0.25% of GDP in 2026.

The market remains skeptical about the government's ability to meet the new fiscal framework, especially with the increase in spending expected for 2026, an election year, and the rise in interest rates, which pressures the cost of debt. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announced that targeted measures are being prepared to try to meet the targets, while the expected revenue had a slight increase.