$ETH

On May 16, 2025, ETH continued its fluctuating adjustment trend, with prices oscillating between $2500 and $2600, currently quoted at approximately $2580. Below is the key trend analysis:

Technical Analysis of Bullish and Bearish Sentiment

The 4-hour candlestick chart shows a bullish engulfing candle, but overall it remains in a fluctuating downward channel. Short-term support is concentrated in the $2500-$2550 range (coinciding with EMA moving averages and liquidity areas). If it breaks down, it may trigger liquidation risks, further probing down to $2411-$2290; the resistance level above is $2650-$2708, and a breakout could aim for $2730-$2850.

Volume and Market Sentiment

Trading volume continues to decrease, with prices and trading volume declining in sync, indicating a lack of clear directional guidance in the market. Institutional funds show divergence: the U.S. Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of $17.6 million in a single day, but whales continue to deposit ETH into exchanges for cashing out, increasing short-term selling pressure.

Impact of External Variables

Today's nominal value of Ethereum options expiration reaches $570 million, with a maximum pain point at $2,200; the Put/Call ratio is bearish, potentially exacerbating volatility. The technical upgrade Pectra may be postponed until Q3, temporarily suppressing market sentiment.

Intraday Strategy: Focus on the effectiveness of the $2500 support; if it breaks down, be cautious of retracement risks; if it holds above $2600, consider going long, targeting above $2700. In the medium to long term, observe the situation regarding the strong support at $2411 and the resistance breakthrough at $2708; an increase in trading volume may signal a trend reversal.