[EVENING REPORT 17/05] – NIGHT BEFORE CONTRACT DEADLINE

BTC Price: 103,600 USDT

Price $ETH : 2,541 USDT

Situation: The market is stagnant – tense like a guitar string before the deadline...

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1. Strong drop – Liquidation towards the weekend

💥 BTC falls to the range of 100,700–101,900

💥 ETH breaks 2,520 → down to 2,420–2,480

Probability: 35%

Signal: RSI decreasing, Bollinger Bands being squeezed down, triangle pattern breaking down.

Strategy: Can enter a light short when breaking the nearest low + sudden increase in volume.

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2. Sideway struggle – Fighting before choosing sides

⏳ $BTC fluctuates 103,300–104,300

⏳ $ETH hovers around 2,530–2,590

Probability: 45%

Signal: Price squeezed between EMA 14–34, low volume, RSI neutral ~ 50.

Strategy: Don't rush – wait for a decisive breakout before acting (break out of the triangle on D1 or 4H).

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3. Unexpected surge – Good news arrives late

🚀 BTC skyrockets to 105,500+

🚀 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 exceeds 2,600 → up to 2,640–2,680

Probability: 20%

Signal: Breaks above triangle resistance, volume increases rapidly unusually, money flow coming in.

Strategy: Long after a strong breakout & confirming candle closure above the 2,600 area.

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General assessment:

⚠️ RSI for both BTC & ETH are weakening – weak signal.

⚠️ Tonight there might be a fake-out → need to manage risks well, tight SL.

⚠️ Likely to have a liquidity sweep before choosing the real direction.

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If you want a “happy Friday night,” then:

Watch ETH short around 2,560–2,580, SL 2,610 – TP 2,480.

BTC breaking 103,300 is the first activation point for the bearish scenario.