[$ETH May 16, 2025] – “The candle isn't green yet, RSI is tired…”

Current price: $2.541 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

1H – 4H – 1D timeframes show consensus of weakening

RSI is diving, weak volume, $BTC negative sideways

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3 Probability Scenarios (with easy-to-understand icons):

1. Positive scenario (35%)

📈 #Ethereum slightly rebounds from $2.500–2.520, retesting the resistance area $2.600–2.620

→ Momentum needs to come from BTC surpassing $104K strongly

→ RSI must return to the 60+ range and volume breakout

2. Neutral scenario (40%)

#ETH sideways around the $2.500–2.550 range

→ Bollinger Bands are tight, buying pressure is weak

→ Volatility follows BTC but there is no clear decision yet

3. Negative scenario (25%)

📉 ETH breaches the $2.500 mark → drops to $2.444 or deeper to $2.310

→ RSI 4H – 1D also declines

→ BTC falling to $102K or breaching $100K will pull ETH down with it

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Quick assessment:

• Short-term recovery is still possible if BTC stabilizes, but technical signals are leaning towards weak accumulation or light distribution.

• Volume has not confirmed a new trend → Caution is advised if holding long positions.