$BTC $ETH (Weekend Thoughts, Macroeconomic Analysis!)
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{The trend of Bitcoin is preparing for a big move again. Should the bulls exit, is it an opportunity for the bears?}
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I want to understand the current sideways movement and the future direction.
To understand this issue,
you need to think about whether there is a manipulator controlling the market. Is the main player an individual or an entity?
For small market cap and small cryptocurrencies, the manipulator is an individual or an institution.
They hold a large amount of chips and have strong control over the cryptocurrency, it can be said that if the manipulator wants it to rise, they can, and if they want it to fall, they can even more.
However,
for the overall market's rise and fall, sideways movement. I think what we refer to as the manipulator
is more of a market guide. Because there is no individual or institution that can move such a large market as Bitcoin.
So the main players are just a few people, large whales, and institutions.
When the trend reaches a certain point, if a large institution thinks that now is a great entry opportunity, they enter the market. At the same time, a second institution also enters. The price of the currency rises a little. At this moment, more whales and institutions see the opportunity and reach a consensus to enter.
Then the market naturally rises; this part is the main players.
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When the price rises to a certain level and can't go higher, the main players start to observe and then go sideways, exiting and starting to fall.
So the current situation is that the main players are observing.
The market involving only retail investors experiences slight fluctuations, going up and down sideways. (Can retail investors not drive the market?)
There are many retail investors, but the volume actually cannot compare to that of the main players; most fields are similar, and it is difficult for retail investors to reach a consensus in trading. Frequent trading in and out is the key to sideways movement.
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Based on this condition, along with ETF outflows and market sentiment being cautious, etc.
BTC in the short term, this weekend, is unlikely to charge forward again. The rise is relatively weak.
In terms of strategy, 【105000 range bearish liquidity is slowly accumulating. There is a greater possibility of hitting this intermediate position and then falling back again.】
So my view is:
Bitcoin at 104800 can open a short position. Stop loss at 16500, and manage positions for intraday long orders at this level.
Altcoins look bearish.
Ethereum's trend refers to Bitcoin!