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As of May 2025, the global macroeconomic environment faces multiple challenges and transformations. Below is a comprehensive analysis of the main trends and risks:

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🌍 Global Economic Growth Trends: Slowdown and Divergence

• Growth forecast revision: The United Nations has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.8% to 2.4%, mainly due to trade tensions arising from a new round of tariff policies in the United States.

• Significant regional differences: Growth in the United States is expected to decline from 2.8% to 1.6%, China's from 5% to 4.6%, while the European Union remains at 1%. India still maintains a high growth rate, but it has also been downgraded from 7.1% to 6.3%.

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💸 Inflation and Interest Rate Policies: Ongoing Adjustments

• Inflation pressure in the United States: Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that, considering factors such as supply chain disruptions, it may be necessary to reassess the monetary policy framework, emphasizing the importance of controlling inflation.

• Expectations for interest rate cuts in Australia: The Commonwealth Bank of Australia predicts that, despite strong recent employment data, the Reserve Bank of Australia may cut rates by 25 basis points in May and make further adjustments throughout the year to address economic slowdown.

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📉 Financial Markets and Risk Factors

• Increased market volatility: In early April, the United States announced a new round of tariff policies, triggering a significant decline in global stock markets, with the S&P 500 index falling more than 4,000 points within two days, setting a record for consecutive declines from a historical high.

• Gold price trends: After recently reaching a high of $3,250, gold prices have stabilized, with some fund managers believing that its valuation is too high and may face adjustment pressure.

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🧭 Conclusion: Cautiously Responding to a Changing Environment

Based on various forecasts, the global economic growth faces risks of slowdown, inflationary pressures persist, and financial market volatility has intensified. In this context, it is recommended that investors remain cautious, closely monitor policy changes and market dynamics, and flexibly adjust investment strategies.