The cryptocurrency market is bracing for volatility as over $3.33 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options contracts expire today. This massive expiry event comes just after the release of cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data, adding a complex macroeconomic layer to the crypto narrative.

A High-Stakes Options Expiry

According to data from Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange, more than:

  • $2.76 billion in Bitcoin options

  • Tens of thousands of contracts involving $569 million in Ethereum options are set to expire. These expirations are pivotal, as they often coincide with increased volatility, strategic repositioning by institutions, and temporary price manipulation near key levels.

Bitcoin Options: Hovering Near Max Pain

  • Total Contracts: 26,543

  • Put-to-Call Ratio: 1.02

  • Maximum Pain Point: $100,000

  • Current Price (as of writing): ~$103,912

    A put-to-call ratio slightly above 1 suggests a mildly bearish bias, with traders slightly favoring downside protection. Despite BTC trading above its "max pain" level, the price where most options expire worthless, historical patterns show that prices often grind toward this level as expiry approaches. This is due to market makers adjusting positions to minimize payout risks.

"BTC skew is neutral…price action could get interesting," note analysts at Deribit.
Deribit Insights (Source)

  • Ethereum Options: Bearish Bets Amid Strength

  • Total Contracts: 219,986 Put-to-Call Ratio: 1.36

  • Maximum Pain Point: $2,300

  • Current Price: ~$2,572

  • Ethereum is also trading well above its max pain level, but the put-heavy sentiment indicates traders are hedging or betting on a pullback. Despite this, ETH has shown resilience, likely boosted by improving macro data and increasing on-chain activity.


“Several traders are taking profits on long calls and rotating into more defensive positions.”Greeks. live analysts

Inflation Cools: Macro Tailwinds for Crypto

This expiry event coincides with the release of U.S. April CPI and PPI data, both showing inflation easing:


CPI: 2.3% YoY (lowest since Feb 2021)

PPI: 2.4% YoY (below 2.5% expectations)

These lower figures have reignited speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates sooner than expected, improving liquidity and creating a bullish environment for risk assets, including crypto.

“Rate cuts are back in play; markets aren’t ready for what’s coming.”
Merlijn the Trader (Twitter)

Lower interest rates typically reduce the appeal of traditional safe assets (like bonds) and drive capital toward speculative sectors like cryptocurrencies. This dynamic may partially explain the robust demand for call options even amid cautious sentiment.

What Happens After Expiry?

Option expirations often create short-term distortions in price due to:

  • Delta hedging by market makers

  • Profit-taking from institutional traders

  • Manipulation around max pain levels

However, the effects are usually temporary. Within 24 - 48 hours, prices often revert to their trend unless macro events push momentum further.