BTC Weekly Trend Formation!

Is it a pump and dump or is a bull market coming?

In April, nearly $3 billion flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and since May, another $1.6 billion has entered. Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission indicates that the capital flows are mostly directional bets, not arbitrage trades.

On the policy front, New Hampshire has become the first state in the U.S. to pass a strategic Bitcoin reserve law, with 19 other states contemplating similar legislation. Arizona is advancing legislation on cryptocurrency custody and strategic reserves. At the federal level, the Senate rejected the stablecoin regulatory bill known as the “GENIUS Act,” stabilizing market risk appetite.

In macroeconomic terms, revisions to Trump's tariff policy have boosted the stock market and the dollar, reducing the likelihood of recession and decreasing market volatility. Bitcoin benefits from rising institutional demand, a favorable policy environment, and an improving macro landscape, with investors actively going long.

Although the release of this data shows positive policy news, Bitcoin is currently at the $100,000 threshold. To break new highs, it will require more off-exchange capital to enter, rather than just slogans. Although the current technical pattern has formed, it seems somewhat like a pump and dump and still needs to confirm through a pullback.

Currently, the recent high after breaking $100,000 is at 105800-104950-104440. The highs are decreasing, and while the lows have slightly lifted, a washout of $2,000 to $3,000 is clearly not enough. Without a $10,000 adjustment to clean things up, some shaking will be needed to lift it higher. There is a demand for a pullback to $95,000-$97,000; otherwise, a bullish market won't easily surge past $105,000 to reach $110,000 or even create new highs.

Recently, there is extreme bullish sentiment in the market, with widespread predictions of a significant rise starting in July when interest rate cuts begin.

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It's easy to overlook that the market always returns to human nature in trading. When everyone believes that a rate cut will be difficult to initiate, it can rise from $75,000 to $105,000 in a V-shaped recovery. Now that the market believes a rate cut is imminent, Bitcoin is about to create new highs; a slight pullback makes people eager to bottom-fish, so caution is warranted.