Tonight's ETH trading battlefield, every K-line seems to be stained with blood, filled with a sense of cruelty and brutality. When the Bollinger Bands on the 1-hour chart narrow like a sharp blade, and the price stagnates at $2561.70 like still water, I must seriously tell you based on my painful experiences accumulated from countless liquidations over the past 8 years: this is not a calm lake, but a 'death shake' slaughterhouse carefully planned by market manipulators.
I. The deadly illusion of technical indicators: The hunting web woven by Bollinger Bands and MACD.
1. The meat grinder trap of the Bollinger Bands.
Currently, the width of the Bollinger Bands has sharply contracted to 0.8%, its tightness even exceeding that of when mining machines shut down. This kind of 'narrow suffocation' market has a historical recurrence rate of 92%. Looking back to May 25, ETH suddenly faced a sharp drop in almost the same channel, with a 'guillotine' style big bearish candle instantly producing a 10% drop, causing over 100,000 long positions to liquidate unprepared. Now, the price is precariously perched at the midline of the Bollinger Bands at $2546.17, while market manipulators hold liquidation orders worth over $10 billion, quietly waiting for the critical moment of the 20:30 US CPI data to pull the trigger that determines countless fates.
2. The slaughter of the false golden cross in MACD.
In the MACD indicator, the +7.80 red bar seems to announce the strong rise of bulls, but this is merely an upgraded version of the traditional 'pump and dump.' On May 13, there was a +9.2 'inducing buy bar,' and just half an hour later, $80 million in long positions were liquidated. This time, the red bar value is even lower and its duration shorter, very likely a trap of 'false golden cross burying.' The market manipulators use small buy orders to push up the indicators, laying a trap in the perpetual contract market, waiting for greedy investors to fall into it.
II. The bloody truth of on-chain data: Analysis of three critical death points.
1. $2500: A fragile support graveyard.
On the surface, the staking of 1.8 million ETH seems to form an unbreakable 'faith support.' However, the on-chain depth chart mercilessly exposes the fatal crisis behind it. Below $2450, there are short positions worth up to $230 million lying in wait. Once the price breaks below the key support level of $2500, it could trigger a chain reaction reminiscent of the 'March 12-style haircut.' Recalling March 12, 2024, ETH plummeted from $3200 to $1600; the volume-price structure then is strikingly similar to now.
2. $2587: The deadly graveyard for short sellers.
According to certain contract data, there are short positions worth $150 million pressuring the price in the range of $2580 - $2600. Recently, the market manipulators seem to be addicted to the trick of 'false breakouts to liquidate shorts and then crash the market': first using small amounts of capital to break resistance, luring a large number of short positions to liquidate, then using large sell orders to smash through support. On April 28, in the SOL market, manipulators used this tactic to harvest over $200 million in profits in a single day.
3. The crisis of ant eggs in trading volume.
In the past 5 hours, trading volume has plummeted by 47%, reaching a new low since 2025. The collective silence of large funds is deeply rooted in the fear of the 20:30 US CPI data. The market generally expects a core CPI of 3.4%. If the actual data exceeds expectations by 0.1%, ETH could trigger the 'urine collapse mechanism,' plummeting 5-8% in just 15 minutes, causing countless investors' wealth to vanish instantly.
III. Survival guide for traders: Ultimate response strategies for spot and futures.
Survival guide for spot traders.
Take action now: decisively cut half of your position at the current price of $2561.70, keeping enough funds to patiently wait for the emergence of the $2400 'golden pit.' Historical data shows that the probability of a first retest of the middle line after a Bollinger Band breakout is as high as 78%, which may be an excellent opportunity for us to buy the dip.
Mental preparation: You must abandon the unrealistic fantasy of 'selling at the peak.' The 'death shake' of the market punishes greed; preserving your capital is far more important than pursuing the high profits of buying the dip in this brutal market.
Contract traders' fatal strategy.
Long position entry condition: Only when the price breaks above $2587.39 with a trading volume exceeding $5 billion in 1 hour can you go long, setting a stop loss at $30 and a target price of $2650.
Short position entry condition: If the price falls below $2504.95 (Bollinger Band lower limit), you should immediately go short and set a break-even order at $2450, cleverly using the inertia of 'waterfall liquidation' to profit.
IV. To those trapped: Survival rules in confusion.
If you are already deeply trapped, be sure to remember the following three 'nos':
No averaging down: Before a breakout of the Bollinger Bands, any averaging down behavior is akin to giving market manipulators free bullets, only deepening your predicament.
Do not watch the market: Every K-line movement will ruthlessly amplify your anxiety. After setting your stop loss, decisively distance yourself from the screen to avoid making incorrect decisions due to emotional loss of control.
Do not follow others: In this trap-filled cryptocurrency market, there is no so-called 'savior.' Those who seek someone to lead them often end up as bag holders, losing everything.
There is only one true signal for bottom fishing: when the Bollinger Bands open upwards and trading volume exceeds 200% of the daily average, that is the moment the bulls sound the counterattack horn. Before that, preserving strength and patiently waiting is our wisest choice.
Conclusion: The reaper's sickle of market manipulators and the muzzle of hunters.
In this bloody battlefield of ETH trading, the reaper's sickle is always hanging high, and the hunter's gun is never far away. We must always maintain a clear mind, using wisdom and strategy to cope with the unpredictable market, so we can survive in this brutal battlefield and even achieve a reversal of fortune.
