On this land of opportunities in the United States, the wise gathered to formulate the Constitution, deeply imprinting the concept of endowed human rights within it. Today, the direction of the world seems intricately linked to the relationship with the United States. An elder from the East once said that countries closely related to the United States tend to be strong and prosperous, while those with tense relations with the United States fall into difficulties, with national development declining and people suffering from hunger. The United States can be regarded as the 'world police' on the international stage, its influence is everywhere. Whether initiating a tariff war or mediating the Russia-Ukraine war, or facilitating a brief ceasefire in the India-Pakistan war, America's involvement is crucial. Without U.S. participation, the world might be engulfed in war, with people living in pain.
The United States lacks universal healthcare, free education, and a comprehensive pension system, yet it tries to exert influence globally. In contrast, some countries provide equal pension and healthcare services to farmers and civil servants. Who can easily give up such a stable and peaceful life to chase that unattainable 'domination'? The Russia-Ukraine conflict was expected to hold ceasefire negotiations in Turkey, but due to the absence of Trump and Putin, the ceasefire process has been delayed again, and the future direction remains full of uncertainties.
From the perspective of the financial market, the daily chart shows that although funds are entering to support the market, there is a clear daily-level divergence signal, and it is not advisable to rashly chase the highs. Spot investors need to remain patient and wait for a more suitable opportunity. The MACD indicator shows a death cross situation, indicating a risk of market correction. Although there may be upward spikes, as prices rise, risks are continuously accumulating. The upper resistance level is around 108000, while the lower support level is around 95700.
On the four-hour chart, the MACD indicator shows signs of entering the market, and the short-term market still seems to have upward momentum. I personally suggest trying to short around 104500, with a stop-loss set near the previous high and a take-profit target around 102000. In the four-hour level, the phenomenon of capital outflow continues to exist. If investors do not choose to short, they should also refrain from blindly chasing longs.
From the analysis of market sentiment indicators, it is currently not at an extreme risk zone. The continuation of sentiment gives the currency price potential for further rises, but caution is needed when chasing prices. Spot investors should continue to hold and observe. There are investors in the market who are like Zhou Yu and Huang Gai, knowing they are chasing prices but still firmly believe in the upward long cycle. However, the market has cycles of both rises and falls; blindly chasing prices and cutting losses is essentially a 'quality' that retail investors must possess. In this financial market full of uncertainties and opportunities, investors are experiencing a smoke-free war.
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