Madman says…
After the tariff war comes to an end, how will the market perform in the short, medium, and long term?
Today, Fed Chairman Powell stated that interest rates will not decrease quickly, indicating that the possibility of rate cuts in the coming months remains low. Data shows that there will be no more than two rate cuts this year, and they are likely to be concentrated after September, specifically looking at changes in CPI data and employment conditions. Therefore, the Fed's impact on the market in the short term will not be significant.
In the short term, what we really need to watch is Trump's rhetoric. Tariffs, comments on social media, monetary policy interventions, and tax regulations are all ways he impacts the market. It's not easy for normal people to anticipate his thought processes, so short-term trends are quite random recently, making it uncomfortable for most short-term traders.
Looking at the long term, the global M2 money supply reached a record high at the beginning of this year, which is the fundamental reason for Bitcoin's rise. Therefore, the long-term trend should be stable and improving, especially since Bitcoin's movements tend to lag behind M2 money data by about 90 days. Long-term holders should continue to hold.
Bitcoin currently has a value preservation effect, and in the future, it will strengthen cyclically like gold, but its growth potential will be better than gold, and the risks will also be greater than gold, due to its liquidity characteristics.
As for the intermediate waves, that's the subject we are studying.
Bitcoin has rebounded, and the rebound momentum exceeded most people's expectations, and the same goes for Ether. The time for Bitcoin to pull back below 100,000 was about 3 months, which is quite short. The turnover is not sufficient, especially for those who have withdrawn coins to wallets; the cleaning was not thorough enough. But since this rebound is so strong, and if it can stabilize around 100,000, the probability of reaching a new high in the future is increasing. If it adjusts to 90,000 and then rallies, or if it goes straight up in the next week or two, the former would have a higher peak, while the latter would return if it can't break through 120,000.
Many people do not understand why the market can rise so quickly despite not having much incremental growth; the reason is that the market size has been continuously increasing, and the supply of liquid tokens is decreasing, leading to stronger purchasing power demand. Therefore, risks will appear after new highs, but currently, it still belongs to a safe period within the speculative range.
As for Ether and SOL, the fundamentals of Ether have not changed much, still within the scope of a rebound from an oversold condition. There is still some room for the ETH/BTC rebound, so a price of 3000 is still possible. Whether SOL can continue to rise depends on whether the on-chain PVP profit effect can return. Everyone understands that it may take some time to see another super bull run, and it's likely to be a correlated market.
I also want to mention BNB; the current 600 platform was created during the last bull market in 2021. It has not broken through for four years. While Bitcoin has risen from 69,000 to 110,000, BNB's price has hardly changed. However, if we consider the 'pork trotter rice' returns that everyone receives each year, the actual value should have kept pace with or even exceeded Bitcoin's growth. Therefore, the price may continue to remain stable in the future, similar to listed companies like Coinbase or Microstrategy, closely following the state of the market itself.
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"[Madman Talks Trends] After the tariff war ends, how will the market perform in the short, medium, and long term?" This article was first published on (Block Guest).