#美国PPI数据来袭 The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released data on May 15 showing that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April indicated significant signs of relief in inflationary pressures at the producer level, but core inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target. Specifically, the April PPI unexpectedly fell by 0.5% month-on-month, the largest drop since May 2020, far exceeding the market's expected increase of 0.2%, with the previous value revised from -0.4% to 0%. The year-on-year increase slowed to 2.4%, slightly below the expected 2.5%, with the previous value revised from 2.7% to 3.4%. The core PPI, excluding food and energy, fell by 0.4% month-on-month (expected +0.3%) and increased by 3.1% year-on-year (in line with expectations), a slight drop from the previous value of 3.3%.

Driving factors behind the data

1. Active absorption of cost shocks by companies

Data shows that US companies, in the context of rising import tariffs, choose to absorb some cost pressures themselves to avoid passing costs entirely onto consumers. A survey by the Atlanta Federal Reserve shows that fewer than one in five companies can fully pass on a 10% increase in costs. For example, car manufacturers Stellantis and Hyundai respond to tariff impacts through discounting or price-stabilizing strategies, while Walmart plans to raise prices but also faces the risk of declining demand.

2. Energy and food prices drag down

Energy costs have declined for the third consecutive month, and food prices have fallen for two months, with the cost of eggs decreasing by more than 39% in a single month. Among commodity prices, the non-food and energy component only rose by 0.4% month-on-month, while service prices fell by 0.7%, marking the largest drop since records began in 2009, mainly due to a decline in wholesale profit margins for machinery and vehicles.

3. Changes in supply chain and demand environment

The combined effect of supply chain recovery and slowing consumer demand has led to a reduction in price pressures at the production end. Data shows that over 40% of the decline in final demand service prices is attributed to the contraction of wholesale profit margins. Meanwhile, declining consumer confidence and weak retail sales (April retail sales showed almost zero growth) have prompted companies to adopt conservative pricing strategies.

Market response and policy impact

1. Volatility in financial markets

After the data release, the US dollar index weakened in the short term, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries fell by 11 basis points to 4.435%, and gold prices rose nearly 2%, reflecting the market's warming expectations for easing inflation and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The three major US stock indices generally rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.65% and the S&P 500 index up 0.41%.

2. Divergence in Federal Reserve policy path

Although the overall PPI fell more than expected, the core PPI remains above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%, with March data significantly revised up to 3.4%, indicating that underlying inflation pressures remain stubborn. This may lead the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at the June meeting but retain the possibility of future rate hikes. Current market pricing shows an increased probability of interest rate cuts within the year, but the extent may be limited.

3. Global economic linkage effects

As the world's largest economy, the decline in US PPI may alleviate global inflationary pressures, especially in the energy and commodities markets. At the same time, export countries like China may benefit from the easing of US import price pressures, but they need to be wary of the potential impact of tariff policy uncertainties on the supply chain.

Future focus points

1. Sustainability of May data

If PPI declines for three consecutive months, it may further strengthen the market's expectation of a 'soft landing'. Attention should be paid to the trend of energy prices in May, adjustments in corporate pricing strategies, and the actual impact of tariff policies.

2. Transmission at the consumer level

Can the current behavior of companies absorbing costs be sustained? If cost transfer accelerates in the future, it may trigger a rebound in core CPI, affecting Federal Reserve decisions.

3. Geopolitics and supply chain

The changes in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the situation in the Middle East, and China-US trade relations may cause new disturbances to PPI through energy and raw material prices.

Overall, the April PPI data releases positive signals of easing inflationary pressures, but the stickiness of core inflation and the uncertainty of the policy environment still need to be monitored. Investors should closely watch subsequent CPI data and statements from Federal Reserve officials to grasp changes in market trends.