#BTC走势分析
As of May 16, 2025, 11:00 (+08), the BTC price is approximately $101,900, with a 24-hour decline of 1.55% and a trading volume of $2.61 billion.
After breaking $100,000 by the end of 2024, the price fluctuated between $95,000 and $105,000, with intensified long-short battles.
Dynamics: Expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased the attractiveness of BTC. Trump's support for cryptocurrency has boosted the market, but recent tweets have triggered profit-taking. On-chain chip concentration is 15.5%, with both selling pressure and support present.
Technical analysis: MACD death cross convergence, RSI neutral (50), price is at the middle band of the Bollinger Bands ($98,000 - $105,000). Support at $98,000, $95,000; resistance at $105,000, $110,000. Trading volume is declining, and a breakout requires bullish collaboration.
Prediction: Short-term (1-2 weeks) fluctuation between $98,000 and $105,000, a breakout above $105,000 targets $110,000, while a drop below $98,000 may reach $95,000. In the medium term, a rate cut could push the price up to $120,000 - $130,000, but macro risks may drop it to $80,000.
Advice: For the short term, build positions at $95,000 - $98,000, stop loss at $92,000, target $105,000; for the medium to long term, consider regular investment and pay attention to the Federal Reserve.
Summary: Short-term consolidation, medium-term bullish, strict risk control.
