When Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasizes again that 'interest rate cuts will only be considered in December,' traditional financial markets are in an uproar, while the crypto space shows unexpected 'calm.' There are no anticipated wild fluctuations; instead, there is a steady slow bull trend. This 'independent market ignoring policy rhythms' hides important signals of the maturity of the crypto market.
1. Interest rate cut expectations fail: Why doesn’t the crypto market 'listen to the Federal Reserve anymore?' At one time, cryptocurrencies were seen as a 'mirror market' of Federal Reserve policies, with interest rate decisions always triggering dramatic price fluctuations. But now, the market's reaction to Powell's 'December rate cut argument' is tepid for three reasons: 1. Anticipation has been digested in advance, with negative expectations turning into positives. Data shows that as early as Q2 2025, the market had already priced in the probability of a rate cut within the year through the CME FedWatch tool. Powell's current statements seem more like 'confirming known information' rather than releasing new signals. As Bitcoin analyst ChainCatcher said: 'When everyone expects a rate cut, not cutting rates itself is no longer negative.' 2. Underlying logic switch: from liquidity-driven to value-driven. As companies like MicroStrategy continue to accumulate Bitcoin, the negative premium of Grayscale’s GBTC has narrowed to below 5%. Crypto assets are shifting from 'speculative targets' to 'digital gold.' On-chain data shows that the number of whale addresses (holding over 1,000 BTC) increased by 18% in the first half of 2025, with long-term holders surpassing 65%. The market structure has shifted from 'retail-led' to 'institution-pricing.' 3. Improved policy immunity: Regulatory certainty has increased. The EU's (Crypto Asset Market Regulation) MiCA has officially landed, and the U.S. SEC's attitude towards spot ETFs has softened. Among the top 10 economies worldwide, 7 have introduced clear cryptocurrency policies. This 'regulatory framework' has allowed the market to escape the shadow of 'policy black swans,' enabling a greater focus on technological fundamentals.
2. The underlying code of the slow bull market: Three major characteristics of a healthy upward trend. The current slow bull trend in the crypto space is fundamentally different from the 'restless bull' of 2021, presenting three major healthy characteristics: 1. Perfect coordination of volume and price, rejecting emotional speculation. Bitcoin has a cumulative increase of 15% over the past 30 days, but the maximum daily volatility is only 4.2%, with average daily trading volume stabilizing around $20 billion. This 'small step upward' model sharply contrasts with the 'impulsive surge' of altcoins in 2024, reflecting the sustainability and rationality of capital inflow. 2. Pullbacks are opportunities, with strong bullish control. Each 5%-8% minor pullback is quickly met with buying support. A typical case is on June 12, when BTC dropped to $28,500, three whale buy orders of over 5,000 BTC appeared on-chain, pushing the price back up to $30,000 within 24 hours. Data from the derivatives market shows that the perpetual contract funding rate remains positive, indicating strong bullish sentiment. 3. Mainstream coins lead the way, supported by ecological fundamentals. ETH has surged 22% over the past two weeks thanks to the Layer 2 ecosystem; SOL, ATOM, and other public chain coins have returned to the top 20 in market capitalization due to improved cross-chain interoperability. Market focus has shifted from 'concept speculation' to 'technical implementation,' reflecting investors' recognition of the practical value of cryptocurrencies.
Investment discipline: Invest a fixed amount in BTC/ETH weekly to spread the price fluctuation risk, especially increasing the investment ratio during pullbacks (such as the 'smile curve' strategy);
Portfolio allocation: 60% of funds allocated to BTC as the 'ballast,' 30% allocated to mainstream coins like ETH/SOL to capture elastic returns, and 10% reserved as flexible funds to deal with black swans.
2. Key reference points
Support level: BTC short-term support at $30,000, ETH support at $1,800. Falling below may be seen as a 'golden pit' accumulation opportunity.
Resistance levels: BTC mid-term target of $38,000 (2024 high), ETH first target of $2,400 (2023 high).
3. Risk warning
Stay away from high-leverage contracts (recommended leverage ≤ 3 times). In a slow bull market, 'liquidations often come from small fluctuations.'
Beware of altcoin 'catch-up traps,' and prioritize choosing coins within the top 50 by market capitalization with an average daily trading volume exceeding $100 million.
Conclusion: When the crypto market learns to 'not follow commands.'
From 'when the Federal Reserve sneezes, the crypto market catches a cold' to 'ignoring interest rate cut expectations and following an independent trend,' the crypto market is undergoing a transformation from 'immature youth' to 'mature individual.' The essence of this slow bull market is the market's desensitization to policy cycles, revaluation of technological value, and reconstruction of investment logic. For investors, the biggest risk is not short-term fluctuations, but viewing the 'new market' with 'old thinking'—in a slow bull market, patience is more valuable than panic, and positioning is more important than prediction. After all, true wealth leaps happen during times of 'stable holdings.'