This round of the bull market cycle is indeed exhausting, and the rhythm led by $BTC is too obvious. According to historical patterns, it generally follows five steps:
1. BTC breaks new highs for the first time, some coins rally in celebration
2. BTC pulls back 20%, altcoins collectively get halved
3. BTC hits a new high again, following coins are struggling for life
4. BTC dips 30%, altcoins are cut down at the knees and ankles
5. BTC challenges previous highs, other coins are still struggling in the abyss
It is now clearly stuck in the third phase, holding BTC is like sitting on a fishing platform, those who stocked up on spot at the beginning of the year have already multiplied several times. But looking at those mainstream coins that have fallen out of the deep pit, one might feel that chasing BTC now may not be worth it—after all, according to historical patterns, the explosion phase of altcoins may be late but it will come, it’s just hard to catch the timing.
Recently, $ETH has led mainstream coins in a rebound, but there is no need to mythologize it. From the peak in 2018 to now, Ethereum has accumulated a decline of over 80%, and this wave of 40% gain is just filling a pit. However, ETH stabilizing at least gives the market a sense of security, after all, if it doesn't rise, altcoins have no chance at all. In the current situation, it is estimated that we have to wait until June or July for market liquidity to rise before altcoins have a real opportunity to lift off.
The trend in the crypto circle is like hiking in karst terrain; you think you've crossed a mountain and reached the plain, but in front of you is an even deeper sinkhole. The most deadly part is that you can never clearly see where you are; only after reviewing can you map out the route. What can be done now is to set an ambush in advance, so when the wind comes, don’t jump off the vehicle too early. After all, the most lucrative market conditions during a bull market often concentrate in 20% of the time; missing the starting point means you’ll truly become a bystander.
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