Bitcoin long-term holder spending rose to 0.43 while the total supply pulled back after hitting 14.29M
Spending is rising at the same time supply slows which often happens before local market peaks form
Analysts say the recent increase in spending may reflect early stages of distribution among older BTC holders
Bitcoin's long-term holder (LTH) supply rose from 13.66 million BTC in March to 14.29 million BTC by early May 2025. The increase in supply has now shown a slight decline, marking its second dip in May. Meanwhile, the LTH spending indicator has climbed to 0.43, suggesting an early sign of market shifts.
Source: X Supply Growth Slows as Spending Trends Shift
Between mid-March and May 2025, long-term holders increased their collective holdings by over 630,000 BTC, bringing the total to 14.29 million. This rise has been steady until May, when a minor decline was recorded for the second time in the same month. The change may indicate that some holders are beginning to reduce their positions.
Data shared by Glassnode shows that this supply trend often precedes market turning points. As LTH supply ticks down, it suggests a phase where older coins are moving again. Historically, these movements hint at potential distribution behavior and often align with local market tops.
The timing aligns with rising BTC prices, which currently hover near recent highs. When prices grow near previously unbroken levels, long-term holders often begin spending to lock in gains. This behavior reflects a cautious outlook as participants monitor short-term demand and volatility.
Spending Indicator Signals Market Watch Point
The Long-Term Holder Spending Binary Indicator has reached a value of 0.43, up from recent lows observed earlier in 2025. This metric tracks whether spending is minimal or trending upward based on a 7-day moving average. Values closer to 1.0 represent heightened distribution while values near 0.0 reflect continued accumulation.
This level near 0.43 does not yet signal peak spending, but it reflects a noticeable change in behavior among holders. Historically, when the indicator rises alongside Bitcoin’s price, it often predicts a local top forming within days or weeks. Market watchers are using this data to assess risk and plan short-term moves.
Glassnode notes that such inflections can evolve quickly and often front-run local tops. Monitoring LTH activity has become a widely accepted method for predicting macro shifts in market direction. Traders and investors now follow these metrics closely to adjust positions accordingly.
Could Bitcoin Be Approaching a Local Market Top?
As LTH supply eases and spending picks up, a key question surfaces: Is Bitcoin nearing a local top in this cycle?
The behavior of long-term holders has historically been predictive of trend changes. During bull runs, they accumulate until a critical point when profit margins grow large enough to trigger distribution. These moments often precede reversals, especially when supply stops climbing and spending begins to accelerate.
The current combination of rising prices and an uptick in spending has drawn attention. The last time such a setup occurred, BTC approached a short-term high. Whether history repeats remains uncertain, but on-chain data is providing early clues.
