After last week’s rise above $100,000, the price of Bitcoin seems to have stalled.
Indeed, there are some signals that suggest it might also correct in the coming days.
However, these are short-term movements, because the medium-term trend seems to hold.
The difficulty of the Bitcoin (BTC) price
First of all, it must be specified that for now there is no clear sign of difficulty regarding the trend of the price of Bitcoin.
However, some signals are timidly emerging that suggest it may encounter slight difficulties in the coming days.
In fact, there is a fear that the 100,000$ may not hold, given that there is still generally a bit of aversion towards risk-on assets in the financial markets.
However, the fact that the price of gold has dropped from $3,500 to less than $3,200 makes it clear that the bulk of the fear has now passed, but the fact that it remains above $3,000 can be read as a sign that the fear has not yet completely dissipated.
Furthermore, the strong rise in the price of BTC in recent weeks has been a bit too rapid, and this might not allow it to stay above $100,000 for long.
The figures circulating regarding the possible arrival of the correction range between $95,000 and $99,000, thus perfectly in line with the price trend of Bitcoin in recent months, and well above the lows of April.
When will the next bull run of Bitcoin (BTC) price occur
At the same time, however, there is a hypothesis circulating that such a correction could also be followed by a further rebound.
In this case, the key could be the trend of the Dollar Index, to which in the medium/long term BTC tends to be inversely correlated.
DXY since the beginning of the year had fallen from about 110 points to less than 99, but starting from April 22, it recorded a decent rebound practically simultaneously with Bitcoin.
This rise of the Dollar Index has stopped below 102 points, and perhaps the downward path may have already resumed, although it is still above 100 points.
A potential return to the levels of April, that is, below 100 points, could lend a hand to Bitcoin, possibly triggering the potential rebound, especially if the correction were already about to end.
However, one must not take anything for granted, and just as such a correction might not occur, the subsequent hypothetical bull rebound might not arrive either.
However, in the traditional markets, the situation has calmed down, with, for example, the VIX index returning to perfect normality, and this could really cause the price of BTC to rise again if the Dollar Index starts to fall again.
The spot BTC ETFs
For at least three weeks now, inflows have returned to ETF su BTC spot.
From April 22 until yesterday, there have been only three stock market sessions with overall daily outflows, one of which was on Tuesday, while all the others have been positive. Yesterday, for example, there were almost 320 million dollars of inflows, compared to the -90 of the day before yesterday.
These data suggest a positive sentiment, but with a certain caution.
The hypothesis seems to be that traditional exchanges are still relatively cautious about Bitcoin in the short term, even if they seem to believe in a medium-term bull.
The macroeconomic and geopolitical framework
The anticipation actually seems to be all towards the macro picture.
In fact, what seems to prevent the price of BTC from rising towards new all-time highs is mainly the tail of the aversion to risk-on that started at the beginning of April, when all the markets recorded a powerful and rapid retracement.
That retracement is actually now in the process of being absorbed, but the inclination towards risk-on has not yet fully returned, although the direction seems to be precisely this.
It would probably take some good macro-economic news for this inclination to return en masse to the financial markets, and at that point, the price of Bitcoin could react with a further rise, especially if the dollar remains weak.
