Big G's Bull Market Observation Notes

This bull market is indeed magical, the old investors are completely bewildered:

BTC is not following the script

In the past, after halving, it would take a year to break the previous high, but this time it shot up to $100,000 six months early. Giants like BlackRock directly pushed institutional funds into the market with their spot ETFs, disrupting the traditional four-year cycle. Now, even the coins mined by miners daily are not enough for the ETFs.

ETH is pretending to be dead in a new realm

Bitcoin has been soaring, while Ethereum is still hovering around the $2,700 mark. However, on-chain data reveals mysteries—there are 130,000 new wallet addresses created daily, the Base chain ecosystem has suddenly exploded, and the Trump team has named and supported Ethereum-related projects. I estimate that ETH may break its previous high when the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates.

Altcoin season may be late but has arrived

Don't be fooled by the current lifeless altcoin market; funds are flowing beneath the surface. New stories like AI agents and RWA are emerging. Once the signal for ETH to charge is given, those altcoins that have dropped 80% will rise in no time.

Key variables to watch:

① How much liquidity can the Federal Reserve really provide (currently the expectation is a maximum of two cuts this year)

② Will Trump's tariff policy trigger a black swan event?

③ Can Ethereum break the historical high of $4,865 before Q3?

Personal prediction:

This bull market is likely to hold until the end of 2025, but there will definitely be significant shocks in between. Be particularly careful in August and September; if the market's "$200,000 Bitcoin target price" actually arrives, it could be a peak. Remember that the market logic has been rewritten by ETFs; those who trade with the old rules from 2017 will eventually pay tuition.

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