Tomorrow, May 16, options worth over $3.1 billion for Bitcoin and Ethereum will expire on the Deribit exchange. This event could significantly impact the short-term volatility of the cryptocurrency market, especially considering the current dynamics of open interest and the positioning of options bets.
The total open contracts for Bitcoin amount to $2.66 billion. The put-to-call ratio is almost neutral at 0.99, but the level of maximum pain is at $100,000, which is significantly below the current spot price. This means that for most traders, it would be unprofitable if the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, and some market participants may begin to close long positions.
Options worth $525 million are open in the market. The put-to-call ratio is above one at 1.24, indicating a dominance of protective bets. The level of maximum pain is $2200, which is also below the current ETH price. This may affect the sentiments of participants preparing for a possible correction.
Despite the local dominance of protective positions, ETF inflows and institutional activity remain at a high level. This indicates that major market participants are still interested in continued growth. However, a clustering of options interest below current levels may lead to increased volatility in the event of external pressure.
The distribution of open interest indicates significant fears regarding a decline. This is particularly noticeable in the clustering of put options below the spot price. Such sentiment could increase pressure on the market on expiration day, especially if external macroeconomic or news triggers arise.
According to analysts, expiration may lead to a 'chop zone' — a period of price fluctuations without a clear direction. However, due to proactive risk management and positive cash flows from funds, sharp declines are not expected without external pressure.