16 out of 20 market forecasts by BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes turned out to be incorrect. Two were accurate, and another two pertain to future prices and are not yet verifiable. This conclusion was reached by the publication Protos, which analyzed 20 market forecasts from the former head of the previously largest derivatives exchange in the cryptocurrency market.
Among Hayes' successful forecasts are the rise of Bitcoin in December 2023 amid expectations for the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the USA, as well as a short-term reversal in the price of Ethereum in October of the same year after falling below $1.6k.
Two more of his forecasts remain open, one of which is Bitcoin at $1 million by 2028. As one of the main reasons for such growth, Hayes cited the inability of the USA to 'curb government spending.'
Hayes' Forecast Examples
Despite many erroneous forecasts, Hayes himself acknowledged the failures of his predictions. For example, at the end of September 2024, he analyzed eight of his latest forecasts at that time, covering the period from 2023 to autumn 2024. Unfortunately, only six of them turned out to be correct.
"This is quite bad for the average person," commented Hayes on his results.
Here are some recent forecasts that did not come true:
On September 6, 2024, Hayes stated that Bitcoin would 'drop below $50k this weekend' and announced the opening of a short position (betting on price decline). At that time, the price only fell to $52.5k, and the coin began an upward movement — by December, the price of Bitcoin exceeded $100k for the first time.
In early January 2025, Hayes predicted a peak in the cryptocurrency market in March, but the maximum market capitalization for cryptocurrencies occurred on January 20, the day of Donald Trump's inauguration. By March, the cryptocurrency market capitalization was about 30% lower than the peak in January.
Already in March, the founder of BitMEX bet that Bitcoin would rise to $110k before touching $76.5k again. However, by April, the quotes fell below $75k, and the projected $110k was never reached according to Coinmarketcap data on May 14.
Another unfulfilled growth forecast concerned several tokens, including BIO, VITA, ATH, GROW, PSY, CRYO, and NEURON. In early January, in one of his essays, Hayes noted the potential of these tokens — since the beginning of the year, all of them have lost between 28% and 89% in price.
