Is the promised CPI decline able to boost the probability of a rate cut in July? As a result, macroeconomic big shots are all wearing long faces and still not buying it, with the interest rate swap market giving a mere 35.9% chance. Inflation has been hammered by tariffs, and prices have certainly gone up, but the rebound has its own inertia. This transmission process cannot be stopped by anyone; if the next data doesn't provide solid evidence, there will be absolutely no rate cut in July! If we can't wait for a rate cut, then we have to squeeze our fingers around the interest rates; the earliest we can breathe easy is probably in September. We're back to that old routine of two rate cuts; who hasn't experienced it? Back to the market, for now, we can only watch as we walk. The net inflow of trading volume has tightened, which indicates that the script is in progress, so don't mess around. On the macro schedule, aside from Friday's inflation expectations and consumer confidence index, the rest is just a boring process. Speaking of liquidity, this wave is not the kind where one drinks too much and wants to hurry up and throw up. Other than 106k having bled a bit, places are still relatively scarce. Even if we do a big clearing once, it won't last long; if prices go up, it will trigger a new round of spike clearings. The current market is in a bullish pattern with range fluctuations, making space for the channel and allowing the upward room to expand. A false breakout could occur at any minute, and upwards, it will test above 106k again.