Today’s macroeconomic releases from the UK and the US are sending mixed signals, from stagnating consumer activity to the return of inflationary pressure. Investors are now squarely focused on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which could determine the short-term direction of both traditional and crypto markets.

🇬🇧 United Kingdom: GDP Signals Stagnation

  • March GDP (MoM): 0.0% (Previous: 0.5%)

  • Q1 GDP (QoQ): 0.6% (Previous: 0.1%)

  • Q1 GDP (YoY): 1.2% (Previous: 1.5%)

▶ The UK economy showed no growth in March, and the annual pace slowed, despite a modest quarterly improvement.

📉 This stagnation could increase pressure on the Bank of England to ease monetary policy, which may be neutral or mildly bullish for financial markets.

🇺🇸 United States: Consumer Weakness + Inflation Comeback

Key Data at 15:30 (GMT+3):

  • Core Retail Sales (MoM): +0.3% (Previous: 0.5%)

  • Retail Sales (MoM): 0.0% (Previous: 1.4%)

  • PPI (Producer Price Index, MoM): +0.2% (Previous: -0.4%)

  • Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: -9.9 (Previous: -26.4)

  • Initial Jobless Claims: 229K (Previous: 228K)

▶ Retail sales flatlined, signaling a cooling of consumer demand.
▶ Manufacturing shows slight improvement, but remains deep in contraction.
▶ PPI rebounded, indicating that producer prices are rising again — a sign that inflation is resurfacing.
▶ Labor market remains stable, with little change in jobless claims.

🗣 All Eyes on Powell at 15:40 (GMT+3)

Markets are now waiting for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks, which are likely to determine market direction today:

  • A dovish tone or hints at a pause in tightening → 📈 bullish signal for markets

  • Hawkish rhetoric focused on inflation control → 📉 bearish impact, especially for tech stocks and crypto

🔍 Market Impact

📉 Stock Market:
Mixed signals:

  • Consumer demand is softening

  • Producer prices are climbing again

  • Manufacturing still weak

➡ Rising risks of stagflation (low growth + high inflation) may weigh on market sentiment.
➡ Powell’s tone will likely set the direction for S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

🟡 Crypto Market:
A combination of rising inflation and weakening demand is a red flag for crypto.

  • A hint at rate cuts or a dovish pause by Powell could be bullish for BTC and ETH

  • A continued hawkish stance may trigger increased volatility and possible downside pressure

📌 Bottom Line

  • The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakening consumer activity and persistent manufacturing softness.

  • Inflation pressures are reemerging as PPI ticks up, putting the Fed in a tricky position.

  • Powell’s speech is the key catalyst today — the market is at a standstill waiting for clues on future policy. His words will decide whether we see a relief rally or further declines.

#BTC #PPI #ETH