Behind the fluctuations of K-line is a tug-of-war between emotion and rationality. The extent to which you can manage volatility does not depend on technical analysis, but on how you manage your mindset. Every stop loss is a tuition fee for growth, and every impulse is a potential trap. The market is never wrong; what is wrong is your interpretation and response. Here, the biggest enemy is not the market trend, but your inner demons. After stabilizing around 103300 in the morning, Bitcoin quickly surged to 103800. Our first wave of large long positions in the morning only captured nearly 500 points, while Ethereum gained nearly 50 points. We also profited significantly from this wave. Subsequently, the price above 103800 could not hold, and it quickly retraced, disrupting and breaking the support at the bottom of 102800, plunging down to around 102200. Although we did not catch this downtrend, fortunately, the long positions in the morning had already profited. The current price is around 102300.
From the hourly technical indicators, Bitcoin's trend is bearish. In terms of the Bollinger Bands, the price has fallen below the middle band, approaching the lower band, and is in a weak area dominated by bears. If it cannot quickly rebound above the middle band, it may continue to decline or even fall below the lower band. In the KDJ indicator, the J value is in the oversold zone and moving downward, while the K and D lines are also heading down, indicating strong selling pressure in the short term, with bearish forces continuing to be released. In the MACD indicator, both DIF and DEA values are negative, showing clear bearish signals. Considering these indicators, Bitcoin is currently dominated by bears in the short term.
Bitcoin Strategy: Short around 102500-102800, target 101500.
Ethereum Strategy: Short around 2580-2590, target 2520.
