$BTC Below is the analysis of BTC:
Price Trend
• Short-term trend: As of May 15, 2025, the Bitcoin price remains around $103,000, showing an overall high-level box fluctuation trend. From the daily chart, the price has returned above the support point of the golden ratio 0.786 at $102,400, and the EMA trend indicator shows an upward expanding opening, which is expected to provide support for the candlestick around $101,000. The MACD indicator shows that the top divergence trend has not yet ended, and the probability of sideways movement increases in the short term. From the four-hour chart, the candlestick runs at the top of the EMA trend indicator, with bulls contracting, top pressure moving down, and the MACD continuously shrinking while increasing positions, with the top divergence pattern spreading to the mid-level trend.
• Long-term trend: Bitcoin has performed well over the past year, with a price increase of 88.41%. It reached its highest price of $109,358.01 on January 20, 2025, and has fluctuated since. Some experts predict that Bitcoin will exceed $250,000 in the future wave of institutional adoption and a new cryptocurrency market cycle, but there is uncertainty.
Market Sentiment
Current market sentiment is quite sensitive, and price fluctuations easily trigger investors' emotions of chasing highs and selling lows. When the price falls below $103,000, some investors expect a significant drop; when it touches above $105,500, they anticipate a surge. This emotional trading is detrimental to long-term investment returns.
Technical Indicators
According to Coin World data, based on MACD analysis, there is no obvious trend in the current market, with the MACD histogram remaining positive and gradually lengthening, indicating strong bullish force; the KDJ indicator is neutral, with a value of 44. At the same time, some analyses provide reference buy points, sell points, and stop-loss points, such as buy points at $98,898.53 and $101,935.24, with a long position stop-loss point at $101,210.8, etc.
Risk Factors
• Price volatility risk: The Bitcoin market is highly volatile, and prices can fluctuate significantly in a short period, with a 24-hour volatility of up to 2.08%, which exposes investors to a considerable risk of asset value fluctuation.
• Regulatory policy risk: There is uncertainty regarding the regulatory policies for cryptocurrencies in various countries. Some countries may strengthen regulations, restricting Bitcoin trading and usage, which could negatively impact its price and market development.
• Technical risk: Bitcoin relies on complex blockchain technology, and technical vulnerabilities, hacker attacks, changes in consensus mechanisms, etc., could affect its security and stability.
