The chart illustrates a recurring pattern in the altcoin market known as the “bear trap”, where price appears to break down, triggering fear and selling, only to reverse and start a massive bull run. Here’s a breakdown and forecast:
Observed Historical Patterns:
2016–2018 Cycle:
Bear Trap forms.
Followed by 40X rally.
2019–2021 Cycle:
Bear Trap again.
Followed by 10X rally.
2023–2025 Cycle (Current):
Another Bear Trap noted.
Retail traders again “waiting for a pullback.”
Key Technical Observations:
Each cycle forms higher lows, indicating long-term bullish market structure.
Retail consistently misses the bottom due to fear during bear traps.
Logarithmic growth shows diminishing returns: 40X → 10X → ??X.
Prediction for Next Cycle:
If the pattern continues, we may expect a reduced but significant gain.
Reasonable projection: 3X to 6X rise, depending on market liquidity, macroeconomic conditions, and adoption trends.
Conclusion:
The chart implies we’re at the early stage of a new altcoin bull cycle. Based on prior cycles, a 3X to 6X rise in altcoin market cap is plausible over the next 1–2 years, peaking possibly around 2026.
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