The following is a framework for cryptocurrency contract long position investment strategy based on EMA, MACD, and RSI, combined with trend analysis and risk management logic:
One, Core Indicator Positioning
1. EMA (Exponential Moving Average)
Core Role: Trend direction judgment and dynamic support/resistance level identification
Parameter Settings:
Short-term Trend: EMA 20 (fast line)
Mid-term Trend: EMA 50 (medium speed line)
Long-term Trend: EMA 200 (slow line)
Trend Judgment Logic:
Bullish Arrangement: EMA 20 > EMA 50 > EMA 200 (price is above moving averages)
Bearish Arrangement: EMA 20 < EMA 50 < EMA 200 (price is below moving averages)
Key Signal:
Golden Cross: EMA 20 crosses above EMA 50, short-term trend turns strong
Death Cross: EMA 20 crosses below EMA 50, short-term trend turns weak
2. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
Core Role: Momentum intensity and trend continuity verification
Parameter Settings: Default (12, 26, 9)
Key Signal:
Golden Cross above zero axis: MACD line crosses above signal line (bullish momentum strengthens)
Death Cross below zero axis: MACD line crosses below signal line (bearish momentum strengthens)
Divergence: Price new high but MACD not at new high (potential reversal signal)
3. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Core Role: Overbought/oversold zones and price pullback warning
Parameter Settings: 14 periods (classic parameters)
Key Signal:
Overbought: RSI > 70 (caution for pullback, but can be ignored if trend is strong)
Oversold: RSI < 30 (potential rebound signal)
Trend Divergence: New high in price but RSI not at new high (trend momentum weakening)
Second, Long Position Entry Strategy
1. Trend Confirmation Phase (EMA dominant)
Necessary Conditions:
Price is above EMA 50 and EMA 200 (long-term trend up)
EMA 20 crosses above EMA 50 (short-term trend turns strong)
Ideal Pattern: EMA shows upward divergence in bullish arrangement (EMA 20 > 50 > 200)
2. Momentum Verification Phase (MACD + RSI assistance)
MACD Verification:
MACD histogram line turns from negative to positive, and is above the zero axis
MACD line and signal line form a golden cross (better near the zero axis)
RSI Verification:
RSI rises from oversold area (<30) to above 50 (pullback end signal)
In an uptrend, RSI briefly falls below 50 and quickly rebounds (trend continuation signal)
3. Entry Point Selection
Pullback Buy: Price rebounds after testing EMA 20 or EMA 50
Breakout Buy: Price breaks above previous high accompanied by MACD increase
Three, Risk Management and Exit Strategy
1. Stop Loss Settings
Fixed Stop Loss: 2-3% below entry price (can be relaxed to 5% for high volatility coins)
Dynamic Stop Loss: Breaks below EMA 50 or EMA 200 (trend damage signal)
RSI Stop Loss: RSI quickly falls below 40 and does not rebound (momentum exhaustion)
2. Take Profit Strategy
Partial Profit Taking:
First Target: Previous high resistance level (combined with Fibonacci extension)
Second Target: EMA deviation rate too high (e.g., price deviates from EMA 20 by more than 10%)
MACD Warning:
MACD histogram line continuously shrinks or shows top divergence
Trend Termination Signal: EMA 20 crosses below EMA 50 (death cross)
Four, Practical Considerations
1. Period Selection:
Daily chart used to determine main trend, 4-hour/1-hour charts used to refine entry points
2. Market Environment Adaptation:
One-sided Market: EMA + MACD dominant, ignore RSI overbought signals
Consolidation Market: Prioritize using RSI oversold + EMA support level rebound
3. Cryptocurrency Characteristics:
Be cautious of extreme volatility (such as spike markets), avoid excessive leverage
Pay attention to major events (such as Federal Reserve policy, exchange dynamics, project news)
Five, Strategy Optimization Direction
Parameter Adjustment: Adjust EMA period based on the volatility of the coin (e.g., use EMA 50/200 for BTC, EMA 20/50 for altcoins)
Multi-Indicator Resonance: Combining volume (breakout with volume above EMA is more reliable)
Cross-Market Verification: Reference Bitcoin and altcoin correlation
Summary: Use EMA to determine trend direction, MACD to verify momentum intensity, RSI to capture pullback opportunities, forming a closed-loop logic of 'trend-momentum-oversold'. Needs to be flexibly adjusted in conjunction with position management and real-time market sentiment.