$ETH – Short-term ceiling reached, will there be a “market shakeout” before continuing to soar?
(Current price of #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥: ~2,580 USDT, down ~3.7% after testing the resistance area of 2,739 USDT)
SCENARIO 1 – Light retracement, followed by the next wave increase
🟢 Probability: 35%
⬇️ ETH technically retraces to the range of 2,456 – 2,425
🔁 RSI on H1/H4 timeframe cools down, does not break the D1 uptrend
🚀 Wave 5 rebounds to the range of 2,650 – 2,700 if BTC stays above 102k
SCENARIO 2 – Deep correction, creating a nice accumulation zone
🟠 Probability: 50%
📉 Strong shakeout, falls to 2,306 – 2,140 (Fibo 0.5–0.618)
📊 Daily RSI gradually declines, no divergence
🛒 Sideways for a few sessions before increasing again
SCENARIO 3 – Trend breaks, falls back to old lows
🔴 Probability: 15%
⚠️ BTC breaks below 100k, ETH falls to 1,886 – 1,675
💣 Breaks EMA D1 trend, selling volume increases
🧲 Signs of ending short-term uptrend
In summary:
#Ethereum is in a “technical shakeout” zone after a strong rebound. Prefer to wait for a technical retracement to re-enter, unless BTC experiences a major event that triggers scenario 3.