A set of "extremely stupid" strategies - only playing Bitcoin and Ethereum, strictly implementing mechanical operations, a trading system that even AI can copy.
This method allowed me to double my money against the trend in the bear market in the cryptocurrency circle, grasp the main upward trend in the bull market, and even make a 60% profit by bottom-fishing with a 30% position in the crash in May 2024.
1. Only play with big cakes and concubines: avoid 99% of the pitfalls
1. Double insurance of digital gold and digital oil
As early as 2024, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China defined Bitcoin as "digital gold" and Ethereum as "digital oil". These two coins account for more than 60% of the global cryptocurrency market value, and their liquidity far exceeds that of altcoins. I have only held these two coins since 2020, avoiding 99% of the air coin traps - those altcoins that claim to be "hundred-fold coins" are essentially capital games, and nine out of ten bets lose.
2. Altcoins = Slots in Digital Casinos
In 2023, I used 100,000 yuan to test a DeFi altcoin. It soared 300% in three days, but it went straight to zero on the fourth day. The bitter lesson taught me that the surge and plunge of altcoins is the result of market manipulation by the banker, and retail investors have no chance of winning. In contrast, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum are determined by global consensus and are almost impossible to manipulate.
2. Mechanical operation: using moving averages and support levels as "robots"
1. Short selling: Sell when the yellow warning line is suppressed
Identification of pressure points: On the 4-hour chart, the yellow MA60 moving average is the "high-voltage line". When the price fails to hit the moving average for three consecutive times, it is a short signal.
Ship in batches: For example, when Bitcoin rises to US$24,000, sell 1/3 first; when it breaks through 24,200, sell another 1/3; when it breaks through 24,400, clear the inventory.
The iron rule of stop loss: If the price suddenly breaks through $24,500, immediately set a stop loss at 24,550 - lose $500 in exchange for global safety.
2. Go long: Buy at the support level of the spring bed in batches
Support level anchoring: Look at the historical lows on the daily chart. For example, Ethereum’s $2,300 is the location of three bottoming rebounds in 2024. This is the "spring bed".
Pyramid position adding: first buy 1/3 of the position at 2300, add another 1/3 when it drops to 2270, and fully position when it drops to 2240.
Dynamic stop loss: If the price falls below 2240 and then rebounds quickly, move the stop loss up to 2235 to ensure that the loss does not expand.
3. Fund Management: Using Casino Thinking to Control Risks
1. 20% daily loss red line
Set a "suicide switch": when the daily loss reaches 20% of the total funds, turn off the computer immediately. One day in December 2024, I lost 18% due to greedy additional leverage, and decisively stopped to avoid a liquidation.
2. Each opening position shall not exceed 5%
Divide the 1 million yuan principal into 20 parts, and use only 50,000 yuan for each transaction. Even if you lose 10 times in a row, you will only lose 50% of the principal, and there is still a chance to turn things around.
3. Avoid the "ghost gate" period
After 2 a.m., exchanges are most vulnerable to hacker attacks and market maker raids, and on weekends, volatility is amplified due to insufficient liquidity. I resolutely do not trade during these two periods and use discipline to avoid risks.
4. Extreme market: chasing rising prices instead of high prices, picking up gold when prices plummet
1. Rising market: Catch the top three leaders
When there are currencies with a daily increase of more than 10% in the market, I only follow the top three mainstream currencies (such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB) that day. In March 2025, Bitcoin soared 15% in a single day. I bought it when it broke through $60,000 and sold it at $65,000 two days later, making a net profit of 8.3%.
2. Crash: Take action only when the market drops by 8%
In May 2024, Ethereum plummeted from $3,500 to $2,800 (a 20% drop). I bought the bottom three times:
The first transaction is to buy 1/3 of the position at 2800
The second transaction was at 2716 (another 3% drop) and the position was increased by 1/3
The third full position was bought at 2633 (another 3% drop) and was eventually sold two months later at $3200, with a return of 44%.
5. Profit-taking strategy: real profit is when the profit is in the bag
1. Fixed target take profit
I sold half of my position every time Ethereum rose by 20% and Bitcoin rose by $3,500. In January 2025, when Bitcoin rose from $50,000 to $58,000, I took profit twice and locked in a 40% profit.
2. Trailing stop to protect profits
When the profit exceeds $5,000, adjust the stop loss to the cost price + $1,800. For example, if Bitcoin is bought at $60,000 and rises to $65,000, move the stop loss up to $58,200 to ensure a profit of at least $1,800.
3. The daily profit is capped at 15%
When the daily profit reaches 15%, no matter how good the market is, close the position. One day in April 2025, I made 12% on Bitcoin, but because of greed, I continued to hold the position, and the result was that the profit fell back to 8% on the same day - the bloody lesson made me strictly abide by discipline.
Conclusion: Using "stupid methods" to overcome human weaknesses
The core of this strategy is to turn trading into a math problem: use moving averages and support levels to quantify buy and sell points, use fund management to control risks, and use stop-profit strategies to lock in profits. In the past five years, I have experienced three bull-bear transitions using this method, and the annualized rate of return has remained stable at more than 40%.
Remember: in the cryptocurrency world, the smarter the strategy, the more likely it is to fail, and the more mechanical the operation, the more money you can make. If you are still chasing hot spots and speculating in copycats, you might as well try this "stupid method" - let the market fluctuations become your cash machine, not a meat grinder.
