In the past week, BTC rapidly rose from $95,000 to nearly $106,000, mainly due to Trump's intensive adjustments to tariff policies and easing international relations. Although the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance due to tariff uncertainties, Trump's veto of AI chip export restrictions, promotion of U.S.-China and U.S.-EU negotiations, and facilitation of dialogue with Russia have greatly boosted market confidence. BTC's rise reflects the market's positive expectations for 'trade easing + geopolitical cooling.'
Currently, BTC's main support is concentrated in the $93,000 to $98,000 range, which is a dense area of chips formed by a large number of long-term holders.
Despite new accumulation signs appearing around $102,000, these are mostly short-term investors and unlikely to provide effective support, similar to the previous short-term chips in the $81,500 to $88,000 range.
Therefore, if the market pulls back, the truly supportive area remains the lower dense area of long-term holdings.
In the past two months, tariffs have been the focus of the market, overshadowing U.S. inflation, employment, and the Federal Reserve. Now the winds have changed; the impact of tariffs is diminishing, and the market is beginning to shift its focus to the risks of U.S. economic recession, whether inflation will rebound, and the Federal Reserve's next actions. The latest CPI data released yesterday is overall favorable and in line with market expectations.
This indicates that U.S. inflation is controllable, and the economy is performing steadily in the short term, which is positive for U.S. stocks and risk assets like Bitcoin. However, the current inflation data does not fully reflect the impact of Trump's tariffs, as it only includes tariffs on some Chinese goods. The Federal Reserve is genuinely concerned about the inflation trend after the comprehensive implementation of tariffs. Moving forward, keep an eye on Thursday night's PPI data, as it will further confirm the trends in U.S. inflation and the economy. It is important to note that after the CPI data was released, the market expects the Federal Reserve will not rush to cut interest rates. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 91.8% probability of no rate cuts in June and a 61.4% probability in July.
Combined with Powell's speech at the beginning of the month, the market is gradually forming a consensus that unless tariffs are officially implemented or there is a noticeable downturn in the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve will not rush to cut interest rates. In the short term, the U.S. stock market seems a bit too FOMO, indicating a need for a pullback.
Everyone has been swept away by the recent positive data, ignoring the risks of inflation and economic recession. The U.S. stock market has also shown signs of division. Optimists are excited as if they’ve taken stimulants, pushing the stock market up. However, pessimists are watching coldly, with large funds even withdrawing from the U.S. stock market. Nonetheless, most of these risks are one-time events. The rise in inflation is mainly triggered by tariffs, and as long as policies ease, inflation can be controlled. Therefore, if a significant pullback occurs, it could be a golden opportunity for gradual bottom fishing.
Summarizing the current leaders of various altcoin sectors
BTC chain inscription leaders: ORDI, SATS
BTC chain rune leader: DOG
ETH ecosystem leader: ETHFI
ETH chain meme leaders: PEPE, NEIRO
SOL chain meme leaders: PNUT, MOODENG
AI track leader: VIRTUAL
BSC Chain meme leader: MUBARAK
New public chain leader: SUI
Now we are just waiting for RWA chain game NFTs and DeFi leaders to emerge.
Predicting the leaders of the next few sectors
RWA track leader: ONDO or USUAL
Chain game leader: PIXEL
NFT leader: PENGU
DeFi leader: velodrome
Understanding which are the leading sectors is crucial to seizing opportunities as they arise. We must constantly observe the market and be prepared; opportunities do not wait for anyone, while we have been waiting for opportunities. Pay attention to the homepage.
