XRP market forecast: Is it 'building up for an explosion' or 'continuing to lay flat'?

Hello everyone, I am Da G. Recently, XRP's movements have made crypto enthusiasts both love and hate it—some predict it will rise to $30, while others worry it will be overshadowed by its stablecoin RLUSD. Today, let's discuss the upcoming script for XRP based on the latest data and events!

Short-term: Dual pressure from ETF delay and FOMC meeting

XRP has fallen 7% in the last week, struggling around the price of $2. The direct reason is the U.S. SEC's delay in approving the XRP ETF, extending the timeline for institutional funds to enter. Additionally, market risk aversion has increased ahead of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on May 7, causing XRP to be inadvertently impacted. However, the technical analysis shows that $2 is a key support level; if it holds, there may be a short-term rebound to the resistance level of $2.26.

Technical analysis: Triangle consolidation and whale movements

From the chart, XRP is forming a 'symmetrical triangle' pattern. Once it breaks the upper boundary (around $2.26), it could trigger a 25% increase. However, on-chain data shows that recent XRP whale addresses are selling off, leading to a daily active address count plummeting to 30,000, indicating a lack of liquidity. The RSI indicator is neutral (46.56), and bulls and bears are still in a tug-of-war.

Key levels:

Support levels: $2 (lifeline) → $1.77 (stop-loss zone)

Resistance levels: $2.26 (breakout signal) → $2.41 (mid-term target)

Long-term narrative: Institutional entry and ETF suspense

ETF expectations: Although the approval is delayed, Polymarket still predicts a 77% chance of approval this year. Once approved, it will ignite institutional funds.

Ripple ecosystem expansion: Acquisition of Hidden Road and launch of RLUSD stablecoin. Although it may divert XRP's popularity in the short term, it could enhance the usability of XRPL in the long term.

Legal risks alleviated: After the SEC lawsuit settlement, XRP has shed the 'security' label, highlighting its compliance advantages.

Risk warning: RLUSD and false breakout traps

Don't just look at the positives! XRP has three major pitfalls:

RLUSD stealing the spotlight: Ripple is pushing the stablecoin, and some investors worry that XRP's core position in cross-border payments may be replaced.

Technical false breakout: If it breaks $2.26 but lacks volume support, it may quickly pull back.

Macro black swan: Risks from Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and China-U.S. trade frictions could still trigger a market crash.

Summary: XRP is constrained in the short term by policies and market sentiment, but it still has long-term potential as a 'leader in cross-border payments'. Remember, don't be fooled by the $30 'big pie', and don't let FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) scare you away—control your positions and keep some dry powder!

(Note: The above analysis is for reference only, the market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. For more insights, you can follow my profile introduction, and other opinions are welcome for discussion.)$XRP #CPI数据来袭 #山寨季何时到来