SXT market forecast: The game between short-term risks and long-term potential

Hello everyone, I am Da G. Recently, the newly launched project on Binance, Space and Time (SXT), has sparked heated discussions, with some calling it the 'Web3 data revolution', while others warn that 'a bubble burst is imminent'. As an experienced investor, I am here to talk about the future trend of SXT and help you clear the fog.

Short-term risks: High inflation and sell pressure are key challenges.

The current price of SXT is approximately $0.17 (it once surged to $0.56 at launch but plummeted by 70%), facing three major pressures in the short term:

- Token unlocking wave: Of the total supply of 5 billion tokens, only 1.4 billion tokens (28%) are initially in circulation, but the circulating supply will increase by 40% to 2 billion tokens in the first year. Especially on the first day of launch, there will be 375 million community rewards unlocked, which may trigger sell-offs.

- Institutional cash-out risk: Early investors (such as seed round cost $0.01, Series A $0.12) have floating profits of up to 17 times and 41%, and once the tokens are unlocked, the impulse to take profits is strong.

- Market sentiment cools: After Binance's launch, the 'good news is priced in', plus the short-term stimulus from the 1 billion tokens airdrop of Chainlink has ended, and the hype may decline.

Prediction: In the next 1-3 months, the price may drop to the range of $0.08-$0.12, caution is needed for severe fluctuations caused by insufficient liquidity.

Long-term potential: Can the technological narrative be fulfilled?

The technology story behind SXT is quite attractive, with the core being 'verifying data authenticity using zero-knowledge proofs'. In simple terms, it allows developers to quickly verify blockchain data like querying a database, while ensuring immutability.

- Endorsement by giants: Microsoft, Binance, and Chainlink support collectively, especially since Microsoft integrates it into Azure cloud services, which may attract enterprise users.

- Application scenarios: If the mainnet is successfully launched, it could serve real-time data for DeFi, AI training, cross-chain analysis, and other scenarios, with great potential.

Key turning point: Attention should be paid to whether the Proof of SQL technology can achieve commercial use within 6-12 months, as well as the flow effect of the Microsoft ecosystem.

Price trends: Two possible scenarios

- Pessimistic scenario: If technological progress is slow or institutional sell pressure continues, prices may remain depressed for a long time, even falling below $0.05, becoming a typical case of 'high opening and low closing'.

- Optimistic scenario: If collaborations ramp up after the mainnet launch (e.g., integration with leading DeFi projects), coupled with a staking rate above 30%, the market cap is expected to reach $1 billion, with prices rebounding to $0.3-$0.5.

How should ordinary players respond?

- Short-term: Avoid blindly chasing highs, pay attention to token unlocking dynamics (about 150 million tokens per month) and on-chain staking data. If the price rebounds above $0.2, consider taking profits in batches.

- Long-term: Light positions, focus on observing two indicators—actual cooperation cases of Microsoft Azure and whether SXT's network query revenue breaks $1 million/month.

Summary

SXT is like a 'dance on the edge of a knife'—the technical vision is grand, but the design of the token economic model significantly increases short-term risks. For retail investors, my advice is: **be cautious in the short term and keep an eye on it in the long term**. The data revolution of Web3 will not stop, but the projects that can survive until the end will definitely be the dual winners of technical implementation and community consensus.

(Note: The above analysis is for reference only, the market is risky, and investment should be cautious. For more analysis, you can follow my profile introduction, and other insights are welcome for discussion.)