Since the sudden and swift resolution of the tariff war yesterday, the previously mentioned issues of tariffs triggering inflation, recession seen in the data, and stagflation seem to be temporarily non-existent, or it can be said that the bomb countdown has been extended.

Under the pressure of high-interest debt renewal and high-interest QE, the Federal Reserve might as well seize this rare window to cut interest rates and take a breather, because even the prosperous data is hard-won. Although I don’t really like the term "preventive interest rate cut," it indeed reflects the situation; and from what I briefly looked at regarding what Ni Da wrote, he seems to believe that if the U.S. economy doesn’t face issues, it won’t lower interest rates, which aligns with the logic of "rescue interest rate cuts."

What struck me today is that Goldman Sachs surprisingly placed the first cut in December. This seemingly inexplicable data reminded me of how data and expectations were suddenly ramped up before last year's interest rate cuts. Unexpected occurrences often have hidden implications, and such unconventional signals should raise alarms. Additionally, today’s data was unexpectedly good; even the 0.3% that met expectations was not provided, and instead, two readings of 0.2% better than expected were given, which makes me suspect that there is an effort to lay the groundwork for data and public opinion. Moreover, with China already having taken the lead in cutting reserve requirements and interest rates at 5.7, concerns about capital flight due to interest rate differentials in the U.S. have also eased.

Seizing the window to lower interest rates in June or July to gain some space for the potential second round of the U.S.-China conflict in 90 days is both possible and necessary. This window is fleeting; if interest rates are not cut this time, the next round of conflict may indeed drag on until the end of the year. Can the U.S. economy still hold up by then? If interest rates are to be cut at the end of the year, it might require some off-balance-sheet expansion tricks to support it.

In summary, a rate cut in June or July is possible, and even collaborating with JD for a big promotion around the 618 shopping festival could align with the next 618 monetary policy meeting to directly cut rates for promotion. The current trend indeed resembles someone trying to get ahead; since there are so many well-informed individuals, the inexplicable surge is so large that attributing causes and then verifying them may not be wrong. Let's take it step by step.