#美国加征关税 U.S. Tariffs: The Economic Dilemma of Unilateralism and Global Challenges

In April 2025, the United States imposed tariffs as high as 145% on 57 countries and regions under the pretext of 'trade parity', with major trading partners such as China, the EU, and Vietnam bearing the brunt. This move continues the protectionist logic of the Trump administration but triggers a chain reaction globally, exposing the short-sighted strategy of unilateralism.

The economic backlash is significant. Data from the U.S. Treasury Department shows that tariff revenue surged to $16 billion in April, but the IMF warns that full implementation of the tariffs could lead to a 3.1%-3.3% decline in U.S. GDP by 2027, and the consumer price index may rise to 4%. The RMB exchange rate appreciated from 7.43 to 7.21, directly offsetting about 12% of the tariff costs, while Tesla's exports to the U.S. from Shanghai increased by 18%, confirming the buffering effect of the exchange rate against tariffs. Meanwhile, prices of imported goods in the U.S. skyrocketed, with electric vehicle retail prices rising by 23% year-on-year, and the core PCE price index climbing to 2.8%, exacerbating inflationary pressures and undermining the foundation of dollar credibility.

Global supply chains are accelerating their reconstruction. U.S. tariffs are forcing companies to adjust their supply chains, with Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam and Cambodia facing high tariffs of 46%-49%, which compels them to expedite industrial upgrades or shift to other markets. China, on the other hand, is constructing a regional supply chain closed loop through the RCEP framework, reducing its dependence on the U.S. to 21%, and enhancing its bargaining power through cross-border settlements in digital RMB (accounting for 7.5%) and technological breakthroughs (such as in the field of power batteries). This reconstruction is driving up global trade costs, and the WTO predicts that global trade volume may shrink by 1%, with growth expectations for developing countries being revised downwards.

Crisis of multilateral rules and countermeasures. The unilateral actions of the U.S. have triggered collective opposition from 46 WTO member countries, with the EU initiating countermeasures worth €95 billion, and Canada imposing a 25% tariff on U.S. automobiles. China is countering through diplomatic and legal means while deepening cooperation with ASEAN and BRICS countries, promoting the diversification of trade along the 'Belt and Road' initiative. Notably, fractures are emerging within the U.S., with local governments in places like California publicly opposing the tariffs, highlighting the unsustainability of the policy.

Historical experience shows that unilateral protectionism will ultimately backfire. Currently, China and the U.S. have reached a 90-day tariff suspension agreement, reducing tariffs on certain goods from 145% to 30%, creating space for negotiations.