The GENIUS Act – a critical stablecoin bill in the U.S. – is at risk of being scrapped after the Senate failed to pass a crucial vote. Is this the end for the crypto industry in Washington? Let's analyze in detail.


GENIUS Act: A Missed Golden Opportunity?

The U.S. crypto industry, with more political capital than ever, hopes the GENIUS Act will provide 'regulatory clarity' for stablecoins – digital assets equivalent to USD that facilitate international transactions and remittances without going through the banking system. The bill is expected to pave the way for major banks and Wall Street giants to enter the stablecoin market, bringing billions, even trillions of USD to the crypto industry. However, last week, the Senate failed to pass a crucial procedural vote, leaving the GENIUS Act in a 'vague legislative territory.'


According to Senate rules, the deadline for filing a reconsideration request has expired as of Monday evening, and no senator took action. An informed source confirmed to #Decrypt that, technically, the bill is almost 'dead.' Nevertheless, some sources indicate that other procedural opportunities could still bring the GENIUS Act back to the Senate floor if the two parties reach an agreement.


Causes of the Stalemate: Politics and Security

Despite no major political changes since last Thursday, a small group of pro-crypto Democratic senators has yet to reach an agreement with Republican leaders on the bill's content. Five Democratic senators – including Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD), co-sponsoring the bill – voted against it, despite previously supporting its movement out of the Senate Banking Committee. They criticized the new draft for lacking anti-money laundering measures and national security protections, but political factors also play a significant role. In the past two weeks, Trump's loud statements and his family's comments about crypto, along with Trump receiving a 400 million USD plane from Qatar on Monday, have raised concerns about conflicts of interest, causing the Democratic side to hesitate further.


Consequences: Risk of Total Collapse of the Crypto Legislative Agenda

Crypto policy leaders in Washington warn that if #GENIUSAct does not make significant progress by Friday – specifically overcoming last week's failed cloture vote – the bill could 'die altogether,' taking down the entire legislative agenda of the industry. A parallel stablecoin bill is currently under consideration in the House, and the foundational market structure law is also pending in both chambers. An expert in D.C. commented: 'The situation will be very harsh without an early breakthrough.'


Impact on the Crypto Market

This event brings many signals:



  • Increased volatility:Crypto fund inflows reached 3.4 billion USD last week, but the failure of the GENIUS Act could undermine institutional confidence.

  • Waiting for regulation: Stablecoins like USDT (150 billion USD in circulation) and $USDC (60 billion USD) need a clear legal framework to develop.


  • Stable Growth: Bitcoin (104,000 USD), Ethereum (2,500 USD), and Solana (146 USD) continue to maintain momentum, but regulatory pressure may have long-term effects.



Future Prospects

If the two parties do not reach an agreement before Friday, the U.S. crypto industry may miss a golden opportunity to legalize stablecoins in the next 1-2 years, affecting the institutional capital flow expected to reach 330 billion USD into Bitcoin by 2029. However, if the GENIUS Act is rescued, Wall Street's participation could drive the stablecoin market to unprecedented growth, solidifying the U.S. position in the digital asset space.


Conclusion: Will the GENIUS Act be Revived or Fade into Oblivion?

The GENIUS Act on stablecoins in the U.S. is on the verge of failure after the Senate did not pass a procedural vote, with the deadline for reconsideration having expired on Monday evening. Political conflicts and security concerns are delaying progress, threatening the entire crypto legislative agenda. With a Friday deadline looming, investors should closely monitor developments to prepare for any scenario.


Risk warning: Crypto investments carry high risks due to price volatility and legal uncertainty. Please consider carefully before participating. #anhbacong