The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 4.5% – the highest in over a month – as US-China trade tensions eased, putting Bitcoin under a significant test. Will 'digital gold' maintain its position? Let’s analyze in detail.
Rising Yields, Changing Market Sentiment
The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose from 4.1% at the beginning of April to 4.5% on Tuesday, reflecting increased risk sentiment as the US and China reduced tariffs over 90 days. This diminishes expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates, down from 4 times to 2 times in 2025. Although the April inflation report was unexpectedly low (CPI increased by 0.2%, annual inflation at 2.3%), analysts believe businesses have stockpiled materials ahead of tariffs, masking the true impact on consumer prices, which may become clear in the coming months as inventories run low.
David Lawant (FalconX) commented: 'This volatility reflects uncertainty around trade, fiscal policy, inflation, economic growth, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks.' He noted that bond market volatility has decreased since April but remains high.
Bitcoin: 'Digital Gold' Facing Yield Challenges
High real yields often put pressure on non-yielding assets like gold and Bitcoin, due to increased opportunity costs. However, Bitcoin is currently trading around 104,000 USD (according to CoinGecko), just below the historical peak in January, indicating resilience. Lawant asserts: 'Bitcoin is not just a commodity, but a digital gold that is maturing. As institutions understand its unique characteristics, the price will increasingly reflect its identity.'
He emphasized that the case for long-term investment in crypto remains strong, thanks to increased regulatory clarity and expanding applications such as stablecoins (USDT 150 billion, $USDC 60 billion) along with tokenized real assets.
Impact on the Crypto Market
This event brings many signals:
Increased Challenge: Crypto fund inflows reached 3.4 billion USD last week, but high yields may cause investors to hesitate with Bitcoin (104,000 USD).
Driving Stability: Stablecoins and tokenized assets are expected to grow, with a projected accumulation of 330 billion USD into Bitcoin by 2029.
Overall Growth: Ethereum (2,700 USD), Solana (146 USD) continue to maintain momentum, although pressure from monetary policy may have an impact.
Future Outlook
If Bitcoin surpasses the threshold of 108,000 USD in the next 1-2 months, the price could aim for 120,000 USD, especially if the Fed cuts interest rates. However, if the impact of tariffs becomes evident and inflation rises, pressure from real yields could push Bitcoin below 100,000 USD. The maturity of 'digital gold' depends on institutional trust and the legal framework.
Conclusion: Will Bitcoin Prove Its Position or Decline?
The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 4.5% as the US-China reduced tariffs, challenging Bitcoin at 104,000 USD. Despite pressure from high yields, 'digital gold' still maintains momentum thanks to its unique identity and institutional potential. With the crypto market active, investors should closely monitor to seize opportunities or avoid risks.
Risk Warning: Crypto investment carries high risks due to price volatility and economic instability. Please consider carefully before participating.
