Recently, the cryptocurrency market has shown a significant imbalance between bulls and bears, with the probability of profit for bullish strategies significantly higher than for bearish ones, but the risk of chasing high prices is also accumulating simultaneously.
The current market leaders are shaping a unilateral upward expectation through continuous price increases, and investors, driven by inertia, are prone to forming path dependence. This market sentiment hides significant risks of a major pullback — once the trend reverses, most participants may continue to suffer losses due to delayed reactions.
Although the upward movement of U.S. stocks provides support for the cryptocurrency market and the short-term trend is relatively strong, historical data shows that market turning points often occur without obvious signs.
Currently, operations face a dilemma: chasing high prices carries the risk of being trapped, while shorting against the trend is likely to trigger stop-losses, and frequent trading in a volatile market often leads to a situation of "time-consuming and labor-intensive without profit."
In terms of trading strategy comparison, spot investment, with its long holding period and lack of leverage risk, is more suitable for ordinary investors; whereas contract trading, despite the opportunity for profits in both directions, requires precise control over stop-loss settings and position management, essentially being a high-risk gambling behavior.
It is worth noting that market performance does not have an absolute right or wrong; only by establishing a trading system that aligns with one's own risk tolerance can sustainable profits be achieved.