1. Market Observation
Keywords: SOL, ETH, BTC
Trump spoke again this morning, predicting a significant rise in the stock market and pressuring Federal Reserve Chair Powell to cut interest rates quickly. Meanwhile, the US April inflation data released yesterday unexpectedly cooled, with the CPI year-on-year dropping to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, while the core CPI year-on-year remained at 2.8%. As a result, short-term interest rate futures prices in the US rose, and traders significantly enhanced their expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the market generally anticipating the Fed's first rate cut in September. However, major Wall Street investment banks are more cautious in their predictions regarding the timing of rate cuts. Goldman Sachs and Barclays have pushed back their forecasts for the Fed's next rate cut to December, while JPMorgan holds the same view, and Citigroup has adjusted its expectations from June to July. Despite the optimistic sentiment from the inflation data, Trump's tariff policy still raises concerns in the market. Analysts point out that the overall impact of tariffs on inflation has not yet fully manifested, as retailers are still digesting previously hoarded inventory. However, as the US-China tariff situation enters a truce phase, Goldman Sachs has lowered the probability of a US economic recession from 45% to 35%. In its report, Goldman stated that the shift in trade policy has somewhat reduced the risk of economic recession, but the economic pressure from high tariffs and ongoing uncertainty still poses significant challenges for US investors and corporate management, potentially affecting investment decisions and market confidence, thereby impacting economic growth.
Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation range, while Ethereum has surpassed 2,700 dollars, with a market cap share close to 10%. According to QCP Capital's analysis, as the macro narrative shifts from protectionism to trade optimism, BTC may continue to maintain a range of fluctuations. In contrast, ETH's trend is clearer, as it broke through 2,400 dollars in sync with the Pectra upgrade, and long-term options liquidity has reappeared, suggesting that ETH is becoming the next major allocation target in the market. Investment institution Abraxas Capital has heavily invested in Ethereum, purchasing 242,652 ETH worth approximately 561 million dollars in the past week. Notably, according to Rekt Capital's analysis, Ethereum has fully filled the CME day gap around 2,530 and 2,630 dollars (green area), with the next CME day gap possibly between approximately 2,892 and 3,033.5 dollars. If Ethereum's price continues to rise and breaks through the current support area, the market may focus on this area as a potential target price level.
Altcoins are collectively rising, with AI and mainstream meme coins becoming the preferred choice for funds. The on-chain market heat is also continuously rising, with Glonk emerging in a competitive landscape across multiple platforms and chains. The market cap of the letsbonk.fun version reached a peak of 18 million dollars, while the Pump.fun version peaked at 15 million dollars. The founders of both platforms have voiced support for their respective versions of Glonk, drawing more market attention. Currently, the letsbonk.fun version seems to be more popular. Meanwhile, crypto KOL Pata van Goon launched Gooncoin (GOONC) on the Believe platform after Moonshot's announcement, temporarily pushing its market cap above 70 million dollars. Additionally, the platform token LAUNCHCOIN (formerly PASTERNAK) on Believe skyrocketed from a market cap of 2.7 million dollars on May 9 to 280 million dollars today, over a 100-fold increase in nearly a week.
2. Key Data (as of May 14, 12:00 HKT)
(Data Source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $103,564 (YTD +10.92%), daily spot trading volume $32.876 billion.
Ethereum: $2,638.26 (YTD -20.2%), daily spot trading volume is $35.33 billion.
Fear and Greed Index: 74 (Greed)
Average GAS: BTC 1.07 sat/vB, ETH 0.95 Gwei
Market share: BTC 61.3%, ETH 9.5%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, ETH, KAITO, DOGE, BTC
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0141
Sector performance: Launchpad sector up 15.15%, Meme sector up 8.51%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 123,265 people globally were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of 364 million dollars, including 49.539 million dollars in BTC, 157 million dollars in ETH, and 16.926 million dollars in SOL.
BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper bound line ($100,716.05), lower bound line ($98,721.68)
ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper bound line ($2,287.28), lower bound line ($2,241.99)
*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF Flows (as of May 13)
Bitcoin ETF: -96.1425 million dollars
Ethereum ETF: +13.3728 million dollars
4. Today's Outlook
Binance Wallet will launch the 16th TGE project on May 14: Privasea (PRAI).
Web3 bank Vaulta (formerly EOS) has converted EOS tokens into A tokens at a conversion ratio of 1:1.
Metis has launched the Andromeda upgrade, which will introduce two groundbreaking innovations: fraud proof mechanism and data availability migration to the Ethereum mainnet.
BlockFi creditors must quickly claim bankruptcy compensation, with May 15 as the deadline.
The distributed validator technology project Obol Collective plans to launch its token $OBOL on May 15.
If the new proposal “Sky replaces MKR as the only governance token” is passed, governance rights will be transferred to a new contract starting May 15.
Sei (SEI) unlocks approximately 55.56 million tokens, which is 1.09% of the current circulation, worth about 14.5 million dollars.
Starknet (STRK) unlocks approximately 127 million tokens, which is 4.09% of the current circulation, worth about 23 million dollars.
The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 10 (in ten thousand) (May 15, 20:30).
Actual: Pending Announcement / Previous Value: 22.8 / Expected: 23
Today’s top 500 market cap gainers: PEOPLE up 57.55%, SATS up 45.08%, BOME up 40.14%, GODS up 38.79%, NEIRO up 37.94%.
5. Hot News
A trader who spent 9,075 dollars on LAUNCHCOIN a month ago now sees it valued at 4.7 million dollars.
Abraxas Capital has reached a holding of 561 million dollars in ETH over the past week.
Pudgy Penguin CEO: The TGE of Abstract Chain is expected to take place in Q4.
An investor/institution address transferred 11.652 million UNI to Coinbase Prime, worth approximately 82.38 million dollars.
Uniswap Foundation has transferred UNI worth 3.12 million dollars to Binance via FalconX in the past 28 hours.
A giant whale has deposited 11.9 million USDC into HyperLiquid again, increasing its short positions in BTC, ETH, and SOL.
DeFi Development Corp. has spent 23.6 million dollars to increase its SOL holdings, bringing the total to 595,988 coins.
Twenty One Capital has purchased Bitcoin worth 458.7 million dollars.
DWF Labs has purchased 3 million SIREN and withdrawn them on-chain.
Moonshot has launched FITCOIN, NOODLE, and GOONC.
Binance Alpha has launched NAVX, SCA, and RDAC.
A whale that hoarded over 120,000 ETH in 2022 has completed liquidation, earning over 131 million dollars.
The US April unadjusted CPI year-on-year is 2.3%, and the seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month is 0.2%.
The Alpha points requirement for the RDAC airdrop launched by Binance is a full 205 points; claiming will consume 15 Alpha points.
Four wallets withdrew approximately 23.82 million dollars' worth of NEIRO from CEX within four days, accounting for 24.2% of the total supply.
