In simple terms, Bitcoin is now somewhat like a "weather vane that can rise or fall" —

1. During war or panic: Everyone fears risk and buys it like gold, causing a short-term price increase;

2. When the situation eases: Funds flow back to the stock market, and it will be sold off (profit-taking), which isn't a bad thing, indicating it has the normal attributes of an "asset."

It is no longer a "niche speculative coin" but rather a "mainstream asset" that global funds are allocating. The price fluctuations depend entirely on macro events (such as Federal Reserve policies and economic data), which is the "cost" of it becoming mainstream, but also the "moat" for future growth (because more people are paying attention).

Why is it falling in the short term?

• It rose 24% in the last month, and many people have made enough profit and want to sell (profit-taking);

• Too many people are buying coins with borrowed money (high leverage), which can easily trigger "washing out" (a sharp drop to scare off short-term speculators);

• The sharp drop in the early hours yesterday is simply because "before the CPI data is released, the main players reduce their positions to avoid risk."

Why is the medium to long term outlook bullish?

• Institutions (like ETFs, Strategy) are still buying coins like crazy, having purchased $2 billion in the last 9 days, and Strategy has hoarded 568,000 coins (6% of the total);

• The real "top" is when no one is worried about a drop; currently, everyone is still guessing the top, indicating that it is far from that time.

Current issue: The market lacks money (insufficient liquidity), and the Federal Reserve has not indicated any rate cuts, so it cannot rise in the short term, and may even continue to be a drag.

Summary: Short-term volatility is normal; in the long run, institutions are still increasing their positions, but don't expect it to rise every day; one must endure the fluctuations.

This week long-term

BTC looking at 110,000, ETH looking at 3,000

In the short term, continue to follow the market to reach oversold/overbought areas for high selling and low buying operations.