Today's Early Market Analysis #BTC走势分析

As of May 14, 2025, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has surpassed $104,000, with a 24-hour increase of 1.39% and a trading volume of approximately $56.784 billion, indicating high market activity9. The current market condition exhibits the following characteristics:

Technical Fluctuations and Resistance Pressure

BTC is in a high-level consolidation on the daily chart, with a key resistance level forming around $105,000. The EMA trend indicator shows that the support level has dropped to the $100,000 mark, indicating a short-term demand for a pullback. The four-hour chart shows price pressure around $103,300, with MACD shrinking and the Bollinger Bands narrowing, suggesting that volatility may contract. The support range below is $100,500-$101,700; if it breaks down, it may further test the $97,000-$99,000 area810.

Macro Policies and Diverging Market Sentiment

The truce agreement on tariffs between China and the U.S. has eased trade friction, boosting traditional stock markets; however, some funds have flowed back from the crypto market to the stock market, leading to a brief pullback of BTC to $100,700 before rebounding, forming a “stock-coin divergence”10. Additionally, the U.S. April CPI data is about to be released; if inflation exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the dollar, further suppressing BTC's short-term trend10.

Institutional Dynamics and Fund Flow

Despite on-chain data showing that some whales are taking profits (with 12 addresses holding over 10,000 BTC reduced), the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF continues to see net inflows, reaching $2 billion cumulatively from May 1-9, demonstrating a significant institutional “support” effect10. At the same time, while the actions of institutions like MicroStrategy to increase holdings support long-term confidence, concentrated holdings also raise concerns about short-term selling pressure10.

Risks and Future Outlook

The current market needs to be wary of leverage liquidation risks; if the price drops to $100,000, it may trigger $3.4 billion in long liquidations. In the short term, it may fluctuate around $100,000-$105,000; if it breaks through the $105,000 resistance, it may surge towards $120,000; if the CPI data is unfavorable, it may further test the $97,000-$99,000 support range810.

In summary, BTC today presents a complex pattern of technical pullback pressure intertwined with macro favorable factors. In the medium to long term, it remains supported by the halving cycle, institutional accumulation, and clearer regulation, but in the short term, attention must be paid to policy variables and fluctuations in market sentiment.

Today's trading opportunity is in Figure 2