In April 2025, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 2.3% year-on-year, slightly below the projected 2.4%, which triggered a moderately bullish reaction in the cryptocurrency market. The price of Bitcoin remained stable around $103,800, and investors are increasingly betting on rate cuts by the Fed as early as June.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the CPI report for April on May 13, showing that inflation rose by 2.3% year-on-year (forecast: +2.4%), while the core index (Core CPI) remained at 2.8% in line with analysts' expectations. The decline in consumer price dynamics is seen as a signal of a potential cooling of inflationary pressures.
Upon hearing of the lower-than-expected CPI, the price of Bitcoin has hardly changed — hovering around $103,800, indicating stability despite the supply surprise. The moderate market reaction stems from the belief that the data met forecasts and does not significantly alter previous expectations regarding Fed monetary policy.
The CME FedWatch tool indicates that after the release of the CPI report, markets are pricing in a 91.8% probability of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve during the meeting scheduled for June 18, 2025. If the Fed decides to take such action, it could weaken the dollar while increasing demand for Bitcoin as an alternative store of value.