Contract Meat Grinder: A Survivor's Blood and Tears Confession
Midnight Liquidation Alarm
When the phone pops up a margin call text
This market's cruelest math problem
100x leverage with 1% fluctuation = principal goes to zero
Probability of being wrong in 5 consecutive 50% win rate trades: 3.1%
Average survival period of contract players in 2024: 37 days
II. The Three-Dimensional Harvesting Matrix of the Big Players
1. Time and Space Manipulation
Choose the weakest liquidity period (UTC+8 3-5 AM)
Exploit the exchange's "marked price" loophole for pinpoint detonation
In 2024, a single ETH spike reached as high as 58%
2. Long and Short Dual Kill Situation
Classic case:
May 8 BTC "false breakout":
First pump to 65,800 to explode short positions
Then crash to 61,200 to explode long positions
Big player net profit in one day: 4,000 BTC
3. Targeting Human Weaknesses
Data shows:
Early profit-taking when in profit (average only holding 32% of the increase)
Holding on stubbornly when in loss (average loss held at 47%)
Frequent trading (those with an average of over 5 trades per day have a fee ratio of 38%)
III. The Lifesaving Formula for Professional Players
1. Position Control Pyramid
Initial position ≤ 3% (for a 10,000 U account, the first order is 300 U)
Only allowed to increase position after profit exceeds 50%
Total leverage ≤ the inverse of the real volatility (current BTC 8x)
2. Ironclad Stop-Loss Rules
Time stop-loss: Close position immediately if not profitable after 4 hours
Space stop-loss: Forced exit if losses reach 3%
Emotional stop-loss: Stop trading for 24 hours after 2 consecutive wrong trades
3. The Only Reliable Signal
Backtest data from the last three years
Monthly level breakout:
Trading volume > 2 times annual average volume
Consolidation time > 60 days
Volatility compressed to yearly low
Win rate 81%, profit-loss ratio 5.3:1
IV. Gory Survivor Data
Outcome for contract players in 2024:
97.3% liquidated within three months
2.1% barely break even
0.6% achieved profits (of which 80% are institutions)
V. The Final Escape Route
Spot Gold Rule
Monthly fixed investment (avoid delivery weeks from the 15th to the 25th)
Only buy the top five mainstream coins by market cap
Start pyramid increasing after a 30% drop
If you still want to try contracts
Please first pass three tests:
1. Make profits on a simulated account for 30 consecutive days
2. Be able to recite all the above rules
3. Be prepared to lose all principal
If you don't understand the coins yourself, then it's recommended to follow the abbot!
Whether it's fresh goods or harmonious joy, opportunities are short, so be sure to seize them!
Success is not just about luck; choice may outweigh effort,
A quality circle changes fate; having a good guide in the crypto world means you have succeeded halfway!
