In recent days, the daily RSI index of Bitcoin has risen above 70 points, which means it is in the overbought zone.
However, while this is true for newcomers, things change when analyzing the behavior of more experienced traders.
This is what emerges from a recent analysis by Glassnode, which reveals that only newcomers and those taking profit are particularly active during this period.
The new phase of the Bitcoin (BTC) price
The correction of the price of Bitcoin, following the boom at the end of 2024 triggered by the electoral victory of Donald Trump, is now over.
It started between the end of January and the beginning of February, and it went on for more than two months, until mid-April.
However, starting from April 21, there was a strong and rapid rebound, which effectively closed the correction phase.
In theory, since the end of April, a new ascending phase seems to have begun, but Glassnode points out that much more caution is needed in this type of judgment.
In fact, the only ones to have recovered are the purchases of inexperienced traders and those looking for short-term profits, while there has not yet been an increase in purchases by holders or more experienced traders.
The anticipation of a new Bitcoin rally?
The hypothesis circulating is that the rise in the price of BTC that began at the end of April is somewhat ahead of the natural trend of Bitcoin in the post-election years.
There is, in particular, an element that supports this hypothesis, namely the strong and rapid rise of the sentiment.
The fear&greed index of CMC has shifted from the strong fear of mid-April to the strong enthusiasm of last week, practically reversing in just three weeks.
This clearly indicates that there are strong emotional movements at play, and it aligns with what Glassnode has discovered, namely that the protagonists of the current moment are the less experienced traders (those who are more influenced by emotions).
The fact that the more experienced traders are still cautious suggests that in theory there could still be room for a further correction, even if the macro-economic and financial picture currently seems to point in the other direction, at least in the medium-short term.
The bull run of Bitcoin
Glassnode writes:
“BTC: the supply mapping shows a sustained strength of new demand. The RSI of new buyers has remained at 100 throughout the week”.
This sentiment so positive is most likely due to the anticipation for the restart of the bullrun, which, however, in other ways seems to be too early compared to the classic trend of the price of Bitcoin.
In fact, the activity of more experienced investors has turned out to be much more limited, which may suggest a consolidation or a decline in the price of Bitcoin.
Since less experienced traders are generally wrong, while more experienced ones are more likely to be right, perhaps it will be necessary to wait a little longer before the real restart of the bullrun.
An excess of positive sentiment has led to a very broad and fast rebound, but perhaps too fast.
“`html The weakness of the dollar “`
The weakness of the dollar has certainly also helped.
The Dollar Index (DXY) since mid-January had fallen from almost 110 points to less than 99, reached on April 21, but subsequently recorded a rebound to over 101 points.
Although the current level is much lower compared to that of January – something that has helped the bull of Bitcoin – the bull of the last few days has probably slowed its momentum.
At this point, if the Dollar Index were to remain at the current levels, or even rise further, some suffering for BTC is to be expected.
However, the rebound of DXY could also have come to an end, and in that case, if the downward trend resumes, the rise of BTC could also resume.
“`html The timing “`
Something vaguely similar happened also in 2017.
Even at that time, there was an initial rebound starting from the end of April, although at much lower price levels and with much higher growth percentages, but it was necessary to wait until the second half of May for the continuation of the bullrun.
Then, to tell the truth, between the second half of June and the second half of July, there was a period of consolidation, followed in August by a new brief surge.
In September, there was a real correction, followed in October by a speculative bubble that lasted three months, and then burst with the beginning of a deep bear-market that lasted about twelve months.
It is by no means certain that such timings will repeat this year as well, but in both cases, it is the first year of Trump in the White House after winning the elections.
Furthermore, even regarding traditional financial markets, the circulating hypothesis is that of a good 2025, possibly followed by one or two years of bear-market.
In other words, even if a bullrun were to restart, one should not expect everything to rise for months without ever correcting and consolidating. Furthermore, there is always the risk that a bubble might inflate, and that it will inevitably end up bursting.
