The impact of a stable but potentially rising inflation level in the U.S. on cryptocurrencies may be as follows:
1. Fed rate expectations
If inflation remains stable or rises slightly, the Fed is likely to keep current interest rates longer than expected. This:
negatively for cryptocurrencies, as high rates make risky assets (including crypto) less attractive;
supports the dollar, which may also put pressure on the prices of Bitcoin and altcoins.
2. Inflation expectations
If inflation accelerates (for example, the core exceeds 3%):
Investors may seek protection from inflation, and part of the demand may shift to cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, which is positioned as 'digital gold';
This will be a positive factor for the crypto market, especially if confidence in fiat currencies begins to decline.
3. Trade tariffs and uncertainty
Rising tariffs and trade tensions increase economic uncertainty:
This could push investors towards long-term investments outside of the traditional system, including crypto;
But in the short term, this often leads to capital outflows from risky assets (including crypto) into the dollar and Treasury bonds.
Overall:
Short-term: neutral-negative (due to Fed policy);
Medium-term: neutral-positive, if inflation accelerates and rates start to decrease in response to an economic slowdown;
Long-term: increased interest in cryptocurrencies is possible with heightened inflationary pressure and geopolitical instability.