Today's Viewpoint:
$BTC :
The weekly K-line is still in an upward trend, showing a clear five-wave structure. It is still unknown whether we are currently in a B-wave rebound or an extended wave of the main upward trend, but the probability of a B-wave rebound is slightly higher. This leads to three possible paths for the B-wave: 1. not exceeding 110,000, 2. equal to 110,000, 3. greater than 110,000 and then returning. We cannot draw conclusions about these three paths at the moment; we need to observe subsequent trends.
The daily K-line and 4-hour K-line are in an adjustment phase within an upward trend. The single-wave measurement has retraced to the 61.8 position, which is: 101074. If it continues to move downward, the 50 position at 99600 will provide good support, leading to a rebound. If it continues to break below the 50 position, the strength will weaken, and we should adjust our bullish outlook.
On the 1-hour chart and below, a double bottom pattern has emerged, having surpassed the neckline at 103100. It has just entered a strong zone, indicating a bullish outlook, but it is still within a consolidation phase in the larger cycle. The current strategy is: 1. If it retraces to the neckline and does not enter, then go long. If it breaks below 103100, the pattern will fail to reverse, and it will continue to consolidate sideways. We should abandon long positions or manually close long positions, with the stop loss set at 102500.
$ETH : Primarily consolidating, the 4-hour upward trend is in consolidation, having retraced to the 78.6 position of the single wave at 2440, showing a strong tendency. If it oscillates downward, it will reach the 61.8 position at 2294. In the short term, on the 5-minute cycle, it will fluctuate up and down, with both long and short positions possible, but risk control must be in place, with light positions and low leverage, focusing on short-term strategies.
Currently holding a BTC base long position and 2 additional long positions, with entry prices for the additional positions being: 101724 and 102480. If it returns to within 103100, I will manually close the additional long positions.
