Looking back over the past few days, in less than a week, market sentiment has quickly shifted from pessimistic to optimistic, directly switching from a bear market to a bull market 😂. However, from our information perspective, all of this seems to be related to the breakdown of Sino-U.S. negotiations, soaring tariffs, and the uncertainty surrounding Trump.

In simple terms, the information we receive is often 'second-hand' or even 'N-hand' information that has been relayed through multiple layers.

Did ETH's rise really hinge on the negotiation results? Did ETH start to rise only after the negotiation results were announced? Not really; the market often begins trading before the news is officially released. Who trades in advance? Those who have access to first-hand information sources and logical predictions about the future.

But for ordinary people, it’s best not to rely on news to trade because news often has delays. For example, when the negotiation results were announced, BTC did not continue its previous strength, but instead surged briefly before quickly retracing. There’s a saying in the market called 'good news landing.' News can be manipulated and misleading.

A week ago, everyone's expectation was no interest rate cut in June, soaring tariffs, and a liquidity crisis. However, the big players used this news to create traps in the reverse, getting everyone to give up their chips, and then began to aggressively push prices up. When the market is confused, they release news of negotiations and reconciliation.

This illustrates the limitations of ordinary people trading based on news. Following this logic, when everyone feels that interest rate cuts and liquidity injections are imminent, heralding a bull market, the market may abruptly stop. While we cannot completely rule out this possibility, trading cannot rely on speculation; overly subjective predictions are not reliable.

For everyone, I believe the best reference indicator is trading volume. The overall trading volume in the market does not lie. When funds come in, trading volume increases; when funds withdraw, trading volume decreases.