Let's talk about tonight's CPI.

Currently, the market expects the annual CPI rate to remain the same as last month, staying at 2.4%. The data from the Cleveland Fed also roughly matches this, so the broad CPI is likely to stay within this range. However, the impact of the new tariffs in April's inflation data is actually quite limited.

If the CPI data is below expectations, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to react much, as the tariff details have not been officially implemented yet. If the CPI data rises significantly, it may also be interpreted as a result of "tariff hoarding," for example, if the monthly CPI significantly rises, shifting from deflation to inflation.

The main reason is the concern that tariffs encourage consumers to make purchases in advance, and the situation with core annual and monthly rates is similar.

My view is that if the data is below expectations, it may be a slight positive, but the duration could be very short; if the data exceeds expectations, it may only be a slight negative, and the impact is likely to be limited.

So yesterday, U.S. stocks kept rising, showing no signs of risk aversion. Today, stock index futures only had a slight pullback in the morning, not considered risk aversion. The main reason is that everyone is not too concerned about the current inflation; they all know that the Federal Reserve is focused on the inflation data after the tariffs are implemented, rather than the previous data. #CPI数据来袭

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