This is a cycle without bulls or bears, and the market will normalize to rebound after declines.

Bitcoin is in a super cycle, with long-term prices potentially exceeding $200,000 or even $500,000, but in the short term, around $110,000 may be a peak. This round of increases is driven by easing tariffs between China and the U.S., but there is a lack of clear support for breaking through $120,000 to $150,000.

Regarding interest rate cuts, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in September 2025, while JPMorgan predicts June or July. However, the probability of a rate cut in June is low, and the cut will be limited; the probability of a rate cut in September is higher. Considering that August is a silent period for interest rate decisions, whether in July or September, Bitcoin's price may have already reacted in advance.

Currently, part of the increase is due to expectations of interest rate cuts. October is a critical juncture, and the market may bottom out after the first interest rate cut is implemented, gradually opening up a new market trend as the rate cut process unfolds.