Market Outlook Under Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Key Nodes and Asset Reactions

The current market shows divergence in expectations regarding the timing of the Fed's rate cuts.

The mainstream view suggests that the likelihood of starting a rate cut cycle in September 2025 is the highest; JPMorgan also posits that there may be a rate cut window in June or July.

However, from the perspective of the market's implied probabilities, the expectations for a June rate cut are relatively weak, with futures market data showing its probability slightly above 20%. Even if a rate cut occurs, the expected single cut is anticipated to be 25 basis points.

Considering the Fed's meeting schedule, August is a policy window period, providing a critical buffer for the market.

Whether the rate cut actually happens in July or September, Bitcoin, as a forward-looking asset, often prices in expectations in advance — the current upward trend in the market has partially reflected the influx of funds due to rate cut expectations.

It is worth noting that October will become a key observation window.

Historical experience shows that in the early stages of a shift in monetary policy, asset prices usually hit bottom after the first rate cut is realized, and then, with the gradual release of liquidity, a new upward cycle begins.